Will CPI be released in October? [ resolves 2027-02-09 (189D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ -0.1% | 2027-02-09 | 97.0% | $3 | $2.0K | A | KXCPI-26OCT-T-0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0% | 2027-02-09 | 90.0% | — | $896 | A | KXCPI-26OCT-T0.0 | ||
| ≥ 0.1% | 2027-02-09 | 99.0% | — | $772 | A | KXCPI-26OCT-T0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0.2% | 2027-02-09 | 7.0% | — | $83 | A | KXCPI-26OCT-T0.2 | ||
| ≥ 0.3% | 2027-02-09 | 30.0% | — | $465 | A | KXCPI-26OCT-T0.3 | ||
| ≥ 0.4% | 2027-02-09 | 49.0% | — | $868 | A | KXCPI-26OCT-T0.4 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2027-02-09 | 3.0% | — | $54 | A | KXCPI-26OCT-T0.5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (November 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- October CPI monthly gain priced near 0.2-0.3 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.2-0.3% range: 64% above 0.2%, only 36% above 0.3%.
- With headline CPI recently printing at 3.7% year-over-year, markets are pricing continued but modest monthly momentum, not a spike.
- The November ladder (implied 0.1-0.2%) shows markets expect a slight deceleration in the following month, suggesting the October print is near a near-term peak.
- Resolution via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; the October CPI report is a direct Fed policy input ahead of year-end meetings.
- October CPI monthly print priced near 0.2 to 0.3 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.2-0.3% range: 60% above 0.2% but only 23% above 0.3%.
- The prediction market pricing is consistent with news of 'hot' inflation persisting, but stops well short of pricing an outsized monthly surge.
- A companion ladder for November 2026 CPI (CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48) implies a softer 0.1-0.2% print, suggesting markets see October as a near-term peak in monthly momentum.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release; revisions to prior months are excluded from resolution.
- October CPI monthly gain priced in the 0.2-0.3% range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October CPI month-over-month in the 0.2-0.3% range: 63% above 0.2%, 36% above 0.3%, and only 15% above 0.4%.
- September's hot 3.7% year-over-year headline print sets a high base; the market is not pricing an acceleration but is not pricing relief either.
- The November CPI ladder (CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48) shows a much softer implied range of 0.1-0.2%, with 68% above 0.1% but only 46% above 0.2%, suggesting the market sees some moderation ahead.
- Resolves via the BLS CPI release for October 2026; the October-to-November deceleration implied across both ladders would still leave core well above 2%.
- October CPI odds cluster near 0.2 percent gain Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins October 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.2-0.3% range, with 61% above 0.1% but only 25% above 0.3%.
- Trading volume on this contract surged 724.8x day over day, signaling fresh attention as the earnings-and-inflation week opens.
- The distribution's sharp fade above 0.3% suggests the market is not pricing an outright re-acceleration, despite hot prior prints.
- The companion November CPI ladder (CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48) implies a softer 0.1-0.2% range, pointing to an expected cooling from October.
- October CPI monthly gain seen near 0.2 to 0.3 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October CPI monthly change near 0.2-0.3%: 61% above 0.2%, 37% above 0.3%, falling to 16% above 0.4%.
- Multiple news outlets flag hot recent CPI and PPI prints; the ladder is consistent with a mild but above-zero monthly gain.
- The 98% probability above -0.1% rules out deflation; the distribution is centered well above zero despite recent cooling narratives.
- The November CPI ladder (event CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48) implies a slightly softer 0.1-0.2% range, suggesting markets expect modest deceleration.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpi-26oct/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpi-26oct |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpi-26oct") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-N58KJP0K82",
"slug": "kxcpi-26oct",
"question": "Will CPI be released in October?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-inflation",
"cpi-october",
"economic-indicator",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5153,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Source Agency",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}