Will CPI in September be above expectations? [ resolves 2027-01-13 (191D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ -0.1% | 2027-01-13 | 86.0% | $45 | $1.4K | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0% | 2027-01-13 | 92.0% | — | $2.2K | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.0 | ||
| ≥ 0.1% | 2027-01-13 | 72.0% | $1 | $1.6K | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0.2% | 2027-01-13 | 62.0% | — | $892 | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.2 | ||
| ≥ 0.3% | 2027-01-13 | 47.0% | $14 | $1.1K | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.3 | ||
| ≥ 0.4% | 2027-01-13 | 35.0% | $0 | $1.0K | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.4 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2027-01-13 | 13.0% | $1 | $394 | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Source Agency from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- September CPI monthly gain consensus wavers near 0.30-0.40 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 52% on CPI rising more than 0.3% in September 2026 and only 37% above 0.4%, implying a modal range of 0.30-0.40%.
- The soft jobs print shifts Fed attention to inflation, and September CPI pricing reflects continued above-consensus monthly gains well past summer.
- August 2026 CPI ladder (CM-EVT-D057W6W251) implies 0.10-0.20% for that month, suggesting markets see a modest reacceleration into September.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI monthly change figure for September 2026.
- September CPI rise above 0.3% fractures above the median Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies a September 2026 CPI print centered near 0.3-0.4%: 52% above 0.3% but only 30% above 0.4%, with sharp tail collapse to 12% above 0.5%.
- The 3-year inflation high reported in late June is consistent with the ladder's above-median lean, though the market stops well short of pricing a breakout print.
- The distribution's sharp drop between 0.3% and 0.4% suggests the market treats 0.4%+ as a tail risk, not the base case.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release for September 2026; each ladder strike settles independently.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpi-26sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpi-26sep |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpi-26sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
"slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
"question": "Will CPI in September be above expectations?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"inflation",
"cpi",
"us-economic-data",
"september-2026",
"monthly-economics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8714,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Source Agency",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}