Will CPI in September be above expectations? [ resolves 2026-10 – 2027-01 ]
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0.2% | 2026-10-14 | 100.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.2 | ||
| ≥ 0.3% | 2026-10-14 | 100.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.3 | ||
| ≥ 0.4% | 2026-10-14 | 100.0% | — | $2.3K | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.4 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2026-10-14 | 100.0% | — | $1.4K | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.5 | ||
| ≥ 0.6% | 2026-10-14 | 0.0% | — | $4 | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6 | ||
| ≥ -0.4% | 2027-01-13 | 98.0% | — | $10 | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.4 | ||
| ≥ -0.3% | 2027-01-13 | 98.0% | — | $5 | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.3 | ||
| ≥ -0.2% | 2027-01-13 | 70.0% | — | $16 | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.2 | ||
| ≥ -0.1% | 2027-01-13 | 65.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0% | 2027-01-13 | 63.0% | — | $1.7K | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.0 | ||
| ≥ 0.1% | 2027-01-13 | 66.0% | — | $1.5K | A | KXCPI-26SEP-T0.1 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.4% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026? | kalshi | 2026-10-14 | 100% |
| YES | Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026? | kalshi | 2026-10-14 | 100% |
| YES | Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026? | kalshi | 2026-10-14 | 100% |
| YES | Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026? | kalshi | 2026-10-14 | 100% |
| NO | Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026? | kalshi | 2026-10-14 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- September CPI above 0.3% trades at near-certainty on Kalshi 99% · $27K 24h
- 99% price means the market has fully priced a September CPI monthly gain above 0.3%, essentially a consensus fait accompli.
- 24h volume of $27K is 38% of all-time handle, indicating fresh capital is still flowing in to lock the position.
- Spike likely follows a preview of component data, shelter, energy, or services prints, landing above threshold estimates.
- Resolves on BLS September CPI release; a sub-0.3% print would be a significant macro surprise against current consensus.
- September CPI above 0.2% trades as a near-certainty at 99% 99% · $34K 24h
- Kalshi prices a September monthly CPI beat above 0.2% at 99%, essentially resolved pre-print.
- $34K in 24h volume is 54% of all-time, showing fresh positioning ahead of the imminent data release.
- Consensus forecasts and recent shelter/services readings make a sub-0.2% print highly implausible.
- Resolves on official BLS September 2026 CPI release.
- Traders pile into September CPI above 0.2% ahead of print 99% · $34K 24h
- Kalshi contract sits at 99%, effectively treating a hotter-than-threshold September CPI as a done deal.
- 24h volume of $34K is 54% of all-time, compressing lifetime activity into the pre-release window.
- September CPI release is imminent; last-minute positioning reflects consensus leaning well above the 0.2% bar.
- Resolves on the official BLS September 2026 CPI monthly change reading.
- September CPI month-over-month gain priced near 0.5 to 0.6 percent Kalshi ladder
- The prediction market ladder implies September CPI month-over-month near 0.5-0.6%: 67% above 0.5% but only 18% above 0.6%.
- Governor Waller's 'well anchored' comment is in tension with the ladder, which prices a relatively hot monthly print consistent with the 3.6% year-over-year forecast in Stories 0 and 6.
- The sharp drop from 67% to 18% between the 0.5% and 0.6% strikes marks the market's credible upper bound for the monthly figure.
- Resolution is via the BLS CPI release; the October FOMC meeting (Story 5) will treat this print as a key input.
- September CPI implied around zero to slightly positive by markets Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder puts September 2026 CPI monthly change implied at roughly 0.5%-0.6%, with 60% above 0.5% but only 13% above 0.6%.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller's well-anchored inflation message is broadly consistent with the ladder's implied modest positive monthly reading, not a reacceleration.
- The IMF separately forecasts U.S. inflation picking up in 2026, but the ladder's distribution does not price a large upside surprise in September.
- September CPI data is due this week per market context; the Bureau of Labor Statistics release will settle the prediction market contract.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpi-26sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpi-26sep |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpi-26sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
"slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
"question": "Will CPI in September be above expectations?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"inflation",
"cpi",
"us-economic-indicator",
"september-2026",
"monthly-metric"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11626,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Source Agency",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}