Core CPI month-over-month, July 2026 [ resolves 2026-08-19 (44D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0% | 2026-08-19 | 93.0% | $1 | $193 | A | KXCPICORE-26…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 0.1% | 2026-08-19 | 89.0% | $1 | $4.0K | A | KXCPICORE-26…0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0.2% | 2026-08-19 | 73.0% | — | $378 | A | KXCPICORE-26…0.2 | ||
| ≥ 0.3% | 2026-08-19 | 31.0% | $1 | $723 | A | KXCPICORE-26…0.3 | ||
| ≥ 0.4% | 2026-08-19 | 16.0% | — | $62 | A | KXCPICORE-26…0.4 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2026-08-19 | 8.0% | — | $48 | A | KXCPICORE-26…0.5 | ||
| ≥ 0.6% | 2026-08-19 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXCPICORE-26…0.6 | ||
| ≥ 0.7% | 2026-08-19 | 4.0% | — | $25 | A | KXCPICORE-26…0.7 | ||
| ≥ 0.8% | 2026-08-19 | 8.0% | — | $162 | A | KXCPICORE-26…0.8 | ||
| ≥ 0.9% | 2026-08-19 | 8.0% | — | $275 | A | KXCPICORE-26…0.9 | ||
| ≥ 1% | 2026-08-19 | 8.0% | — | $338 | A | KXCPICORE-26…1.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for July 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Please note that the value of the Underlying is the single-decimal value reported by the BLS.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Source Agency from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpicore-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpicore-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpicore-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-W0RC4VCRZ5",
"slug": "kxcpicore-26jul",
"question": "Core CPI month-over-month, July 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"cpi-core",
"inflation-measurement",
"us-economics",
"monthly-indicator",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6238,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Source Agency",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}