Will core inflation in November 2026 be measured by Core CPI year-over-year change? [ resolves 2026-12-17 (135D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2% | 2026-12-17 | 97.0% | — | $5.8K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.0 | ||
| ≥ 2.1% | 2026-12-17 | 96.0% | — | $151 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.1 | ||
| ≥ 2.2% | 2026-12-17 | 98.0% | — | $2.2K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.2 | ||
| ≥ 2.3% | 2026-12-17 | 97.0% | — | $3.1K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.3 | ||
| ≥ 2.4% | 2026-12-17 | 64.0% | — | $2.6K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.4 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2026-12-17 | 98.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.5 | ||
| ≥ 2.6% | 2026-12-17 | 81.0% | — | $134 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.6 | ||
| ≥ 2.7% | 2026-12-17 | 15.0% | — | $15 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.7 | ||
| ≥ 2.8% | 2026-12-17 | 79.0% | — | $3.2K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.8 | ||
| ≥ 2.9% | 2026-12-17 | 70.0% | — | $1.4K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.9 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-12-17 | 16.0% | — | $30 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.0 | ||
| ≥ 3.1% | 2026-12-17 | 9.0% | — | $192 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.1 | ||
| ≥ 3.2% | 2026-12-17 | 41.0% | — | $44 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.2 | ||
| ≥ 3.3% | 2026-12-17 | 96.0% | — | $1.9K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.3 | ||
| ≥ 3.4% | 2026-12-17 | 97.0% | — | $4.1K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.4 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-12-17 | 79.0% | — | $5.2K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.0% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
recent wire items
- Core CPI above 2.2% for November year, near certainty holds 99% · $34K 24h
- Kalshi prices core CPI above 2.2% for the November year-end period at 99%, effectively a market consensus call.
- 24h volume is 76% of all-time total, the dominant share of all trading happened in a single day, signaling urgency.
- Surge likely follows fresh inflation data or Fed communications reinforcing above-target core readings.
- Resolves on BLS core CPI print for the 12 months ending November 2026.
- Core CPI above 2.4% for November year holds near certainty 97% · $12K 24h
- Kalshi prices core CPI above 2.4% for the November year-end at 97%, near-unanimous market conviction.
- 24h volume of $11.6K is 52% of all-time total, the majority of all trading concentrated in one day.
- Paired with the 2.2% contract also at near-certainty, the market signals core inflation firmly embedded above 2.4%.
- Resolves on BLS core CPI print for the 12 months ending November 2026.
- Core CPI inflation path seen near 2.8-2.9 percent Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder prices 57% above 2.8% and 41% above 2.9%, implying consensus sits in the 2.8-2.9% range for the reference core CPI print.
- Trading volume on this ladder rose 187x day-over-day, a strong signal the September 3.7% headline CPI beat is drawing fresh positioning on the disinflation path.
- The 8% Kalshi contract on sub-2.2% core CPI (CM-EVT-K0L95NMQ77) and this 2.8-2.9% ladder are mutually consistent: both price a slow, incomplete disinflation trajectory.
- Resolution depends on the BLS CPI release; the ladder's implied 2.8-2.9% range is well below the current 3.7% headline, reflecting an expectation that energy-driven spikes are partly transient.
- Annual core CPI seen settling near 2.8 to 2.9 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies annual core CPI settling near 2.8-2.9%: 57% above 2.8% but only 30% above 2.9%, with a sharp drop to 17% above 3.0%.
- The distribution confirms what the news describes: persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, but markets do not price a return to 3%-plus territory as likely.
- A companion Kalshi binary (CM-EVT-K0L95NMQ77) puts only 8% probability on core CPI falling below 2.2% this year, reinforcing the ladder's central tendency.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation / CPI release; the ladder settles against the named annual figure, not a monthly print.
- Core CPI above 2 percent holds near full pricing Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins core CPI year-over-year in the 2.8-2.9% range: 99% above 2.0%, 57% above 2.8%, 38% above 2.9%.
- Hot CPI and PPI prints are fully consistent with the ladder distribution; trading volume surged 458x day-over-day, signaling sharp fresh attention.
- The Kalshi contract pricing 8% on core CPI falling below 2.2% this year shows markets see disinflation as a near-impossible path in 2026.
- Resolution via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation; the December 2026 print will be the final settlement data point.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpicoreyoy-26nov/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpicoreyoy-26nov |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpicoreyoy-26nov") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
"slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26nov",
"question": "Will core inflation in November 2026 be measured by Core CPI year-over-year change?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"core-inflation",
"us-cpi",
"economic-indicators",
"2026",
"monetary-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 32140,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}