Will core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) meet the specified threshold? [ resolves 2026-10 – 2026-10 ]
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in September 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.1% | 2026-10-14 | 100.0% | — | $1.9K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.1 | ||
| ≥ 2.4% | 2026-10-14 | 100.0% | — | $86 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.4 | ||
| ≥ 2.2% | 2026-10-21 | 84.0% | — | $1.7K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.2 | ||
| ≥ 2.3% | 2026-10-21 | 88.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.3 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2026-10-21 | 1.0% | — | $21 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.5 | ||
| ≥ 2.6% | 2026-10-21 | 42.0% | — | $98 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.6 | ||
| ≥ 2.7% | 2026-10-21 | 37.0% | — | $42 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.7 | ||
| ≥ 2.8% | 2026-10-21 | 31.0% | — | $665 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.8 | ||
| ≥ 2.9% | 2026-10-21 | 37.0% | — | $60 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…2.9 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-10-21 | 10.0% | — | $264 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.0 | ||
| ≥ 3.1% | 2026-10-21 | 8.0% | — | $11 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.1 | ||
| ≥ 3.2% | 2026-10-21 | 8.0% | — | $6 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.2 | ||
| ≥ 3.3% | 2026-10-21 | 7.0% | — | $16 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.3 | ||
| ≥ 3.4% | 2026-10-21 | 4.0% | — | $12 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.4 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-10-21 | 3.0% | — | $3 | A | KXCPICOREYOY…3.5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in September 2026? | kalshi | 2026-10-14 | 100% |
| YES | Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in September 2026? | kalshi | 2026-10-14 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Core CPI above 2.4% for the year ending September sits near 50% 44% · $20K 24h
- Kalshi prices annual core CPI above 2.4% through September at 44%, market nearly split on the threshold.
- $20K in 24h is 26% of all-time volume; fresh flow ahead of the BLS release reflects genuine macro uncertainty.
- The 2.4% line is a credible battleground given recent shelter disinflation vs. sticky services readings.
- Resolves on the official BLS year-over-year core CPI figure for September 2026.
- Core CPI above 2.1% for the year ending September is a near-certainty 99% · $15K 24h
- Kalshi prices core CPI exceeding 2.1% for the year ending September 2026 at 99%, essentially resolved in the market's view.
- 54% of all-time volume on this contract placed in 24h, reflecting renewed macro positioning.
- A 99% price with fresh volume implies traders are using this contract as a macro hedge or collateral reference ahead of the September CPI print.
- Resolves on BLS September 2026 CPI release.
- Core CPI above 2.4% for the year ending September sits near 50% 47% · $11K 24h
- Market at 47%, nearly coin-flip on whether trailing 12-month core CPI clears the 2.4% line.
- 24h volume of $11K is 30% of all-time, meaningful single-session flow ahead of the September CPI release.
- September CPI data due imminently; traders are squaring positions on the inflation threshold call.
- Resolves on BLS September CPI annual core rate print.
- Fresh volume backs core CPI staying above 2.4% through September 54% · $16K 24h
- Market sits at 54%, treating above-2.4% core CPI for the year ending September as a coin-flip leaning hot.
- 24h volume of $15.6K is 67% of all-time handle on Kalshi, the bulk of lifetime liquidity arrived today.
- October 2 timing points to imminent September CPI print as the catalyst pulling fresh capital in.
- Resolves on official BLS release of September year-over-year core CPI; 2.4% is the line.
- Core CPI above 2.4% for the year ending September sits near a coin flip 53% · $15K 24h
- 53% price is essentially a toss-up, with the market split on whether core inflation holds above 2.4% for the year ending September.
- $15K in 24h represents 67% of all-time handle, the highest lifetime-share ratio in this batch, indicating this market was dormant until now.
- Sudden attention at near-50% odds suggests the September CPI release is live for Fed policy signaling.
- Resolves on BLS core CPI for the 12 months ending September 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpicoreyoy-26sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpicoreyoy-26sep |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpicoreyoy-26sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M6P410PY45",
"slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26sep",
"question": "Will core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) meet the specified threshold?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"core-inflation",
"cpi",
"us-economics",
"2026",
"monetary-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6692,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}