Will the CPI-U index increase in July? [ resolved 2026-08-12 ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 18 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
> 333.4	2026-08-12	100.0%	—	$567	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…3.4`
> 333.5	2026-08-12	100.0%	—	$184	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…3.5`
> 333.6	2026-08-12	100.0%	—	$4.2K	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…3.6`
> 333.7	2026-08-12	100.0%	—	$216	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…3.7`
> 333.8	2026-08-12	100.0%	—	$1.4K	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…3.8`
> 333.9	2026-08-12	100.0%	$205	$2.5K	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…3.9`
> 334.0	2026-08-12	0.0%	$2	$7.5K	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…4.0`
> 334.1	2026-08-12	0.0%	—	$2.2K	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…4.1`
> 334.2	2026-08-12	0.0%	$5	$456	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…4.2`
> 334.3	2026-08-12	0.0%	—	—	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…4.3`
> 334.4	2026-08-12	0.0%	$5	$237	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…4.4`
> 334.6	2026-08-12	0.0%	—	$368	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…4.6`
> 334.8	2026-08-12	0.0%	—	$916	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…4.8`
> 335.0	2026-08-12	0.0%	—	$48	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…5.0`
> 335.2	2026-08-12	0.0%	—	$30	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…5.2`
> 335.4	2026-08-12	0.0%	—	$30	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…5.4`
> 335.6	2026-08-12	0.0%	—	$92	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…5.6`
> 335.8	2026-08-12	0.0%	—	$7.9K	A	`KXCPINDEX-26…5.8`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	BLS - CPI-U	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 18 markets · share this text

If the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 is above 333.4, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index News Release Table 1 for July 2026. Specifically, the value used will be the “All items” value under the “Unadjusted indexes” column for July 2026. This market will resolve according to the first value published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the scheduled Consumer Price Index release for July 2026. Subsequent revisions will not affect the market.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS - CPI-U" ↗

sources (2) · single authority

BLS - CPI-U committed source Bureau of Labor Statistics from rules text

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
YES	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 333.4?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`100%`
YES	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 333.5?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`100%`
YES	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 333.6 ?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`100%`
YES	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 333.7?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`100%`
YES	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 333.8 ?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`100%`
YES	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 333.9?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`100%`
NO	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.0 ?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`0%`
NO	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.1?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`0%`
NO	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.2 ?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`0%`
NO	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.3?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`0%`
NO	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.4 ?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`0%`
NO	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.6 ?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`0%`
NO	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.8 ?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`0%`
NO	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 335.0 ?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`0%`
NO	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 335.2 ?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`0%`
NO	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 335.4 ?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`0%`
NO	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 335.6 ?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`0%`
NO	Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 335.8 ?	kalshi	`2026-08-12`	`0%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (18 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpindex-26aug12/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpindex-26aug12`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxcpindex-26aug12")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7YFH953NS5",
  "slug": "kxcpindex-26aug12",
  "question": "Will the CPI-U index increase in July?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "cpi-u",
    "inflation-measurement",
    "us-economic-data",
    "july-2026",
    "price-index"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 18,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 28749,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "BLS - CPI-U",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "BLS - CPI-U",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "BLS - CPI-U",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →