Will the CPI-U index increase in July? [ resolves 2026-08-19 (27D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 333.6 | 2026-08-19 | 88.0% | — | $3.7K | A | KXCPINDEX-26…3.6 | ||
| > 333.8 | 2026-08-19 | 61.0% | — | $655 | A | KXCPINDEX-26…3.8 | ||
| > 334.0 | 2026-08-19 | 45.0% | — | $410 | A | KXCPINDEX-26…4.0 | ||
| > 334.2 | 2026-08-19 | 21.0% | — | $216 | A | KXCPINDEX-26…4.2 | ||
| > 334.4 | 2026-08-19 | 6.0% | — | $201 | A | KXCPINDEX-26…4.4 | ||
| > 334.6 | 2026-08-19 | 7.0% | — | $402 | A | KXCPINDEX-26…4.6 | ||
| > 335.2 | 2026-08-19 | 4.0% | — | $118 | A | KXCPINDEX-26…5.2 | ||
| > 334.8 | 2026-08-19 | 3.0% | — | $229 | A | KXCPINDEX-26…4.8 | ||
| > 335.0 | 2026-08-19 | 3.0% | — | $140 | A | KXCPINDEX-26…5.0 | ||
| > 335.4 | 2026-08-19 | 3.0% | — | $87 | A | KXCPINDEX-26…5.4 | ||
| > 335.8 | 2026-08-19 | 98.0% | — | $7.9K | A | KXCPINDEX-26…5.8 | ||
| > 335.6 | 2026-08-19 | 1.0% | — | $92 | A | KXCPINDEX-26…5.6 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | BLS - CPI-U | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 is above 333.6 , then the market resolves to Yes.
The Underlying is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index News Release Table 1 for July 2026. Specifically, the value used will be the “All items” value under the “Unadjusted indexes” column for July 2026. This market will resolve according to the first value published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the scheduled Consumer Price Index release for July 2026. Subsequent revisions will not affect the market.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS - CPI-U" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- BLS - CPI-U source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpindex-26aug12/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpindex-26aug12 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpindex-26aug12") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7YFH953NS5",
"slug": "kxcpindex-26aug12",
"question": "Will the CPI-U index increase in July?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"cpi-inflation",
"us-economic-data",
"consumer-prices",
"2026",
"monthly-economic-indicator"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14117,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "BLS - CPI-U",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "BLS - CPI-U",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "BLS - CPI-U",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}