Will inflation in July 2026 be measured by year-over-year CPI? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3.3% | 2026-08-12 | 100.0% | $3.7K | $89K | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.3 | ||
| ≥ 3.4% | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | $3.3K | $36K | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.4 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-11-11 | 99.0% | — | $14K | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.0 | ||
| ≥ 3.1% | 2026-11-11 | 97.0% | $1.6K | $9.4K | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.1 | ||
| ≥ 3.2% | 2026-11-11 | 92.0% | $5.3K | $36K | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.2 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-11-11 | 5.0% | $270 | $5.2K | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.5 | ||
| ≥ 3.6% | 2026-11-11 | 3.0% | $238 | $2.1K | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.6 | ||
| ≥ 3.7% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | $7 | $547 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.7 | ||
| ≥ 3.8% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | $0 | $386 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.8 | ||
| ≥ 3.9% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | — | $153 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.9 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | — | $171 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.0 | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | — | $180 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.1 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | — | $500 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.2 | ||
| ≥ 4.3% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | — | $266 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.3 | ||
| ≥ 4.4% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | — | $194 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.4 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | — | $116 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.5 | ||
| ≥ 4.6% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | — | $64 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.6 | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | — | $38 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.7 | ||
| ≥ 4.8% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | — | $35 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.8 | ||
| ≥ 4.9% | 2026-11-11 | 7.0% | — | $453 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.9 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-11-11 | 1.0% | — | $84 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…5.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the
government shutdown
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 100% |
| NO | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Betting picks up on July CPI holding above 3.3% 59% · $38K 24h
- At 59%, Kalshi leans toward annual CPI through July topping the 3.3% threshold.
- $37K in 24h represents 51% of all-time volume, majority of lifetime activity in one day.
- Surge likely front-runs the imminent July CPI print due imminently.
- Resolves on official BLS CPI release for the year ending July 2026.
- US CPI above 3 percent for year ending June holds near 50% Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies June 2026 CPI in the 3.3-3.4% range: 98% above 3.0%, 59% above 3.3%, but only 28% above 3.4%.
- ABC News and AP both describe inflation as 'stubbornly high' amid the Iran war; the ladder's tight 3.3-3.4% implied range is consistent with elevated but not runaway readings.
- The sharp drop from 59% to 28% between the 3.3% and 3.4% strikes shows the market sees a hard ceiling just above 3.3%, not the kind of open-ended breakout that war-shock headlines often imply.
- Separately, a Kalshi binary on core CPI below 2.2% in 2026 sits at just 24%, reinforcing the ladder's message that inflation is stuck well above target.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpiyoy-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpiyoy-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpiyoy-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XP5XZNK7W3",
"slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jul",
"question": "Will inflation in July 2026 be measured by year-over-year CPI?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"inflation",
"cpi",
"us-economy",
"macroeconomics",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 194861,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}