Will the US credit rating be downgraded in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 34.0% | — | $22K | A | KXCREDITRATI…C31 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fitch | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If U.S. credit is downgraded by any of the three major credit ratings agencies by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fitch" ↗ sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
- Fitch venue-listed
- Moody's venue-listed
- Standard & Poor's venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcreditrating-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcreditrating-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcreditrating-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HSWDJ1SKJ2",
"slug": "kxcreditrating-26dec31",
"question": "Will the US credit rating be downgraded in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-credit-rating",
"fiscal-policy",
"2027-resolution",
"macroeconomic-risk",
"ratings-agencies"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21833,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Fitch",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fitchratings.com/sovereigns",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fitch",
"url": "https://www.fitchratings.com/sovereigns",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Moody's",
"url": "https://www.moodys.com/Pages/Sovereign-Default-Research.aspx",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Standard & Poor's",
"url": "https://disclosure.spglobal.com/sri/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}