Will progressives sweep the Democratic Senate primaries? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
Will the listed Democratic Senate candidates all win their primary elections?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the listed Democratic Senate candidates all win their primary elections | 2026-11-03 | 56.0% | $62 | $30K | A | KXDEMPROGRES…V03 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bloomberg | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following Democratic candidates win their 2026 Senate primary elections: Juliana Stratton in Illinois, Graham Platner in Maine, Mallory McMorrow OR Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, and Ed Markey in Massachusetts, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market requires ALL specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. If even one loses, the entire market resolves to No. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. For referenda, the specified option must achieve the required threshold. For indirect elections, the ultimate officeholder matters, not intermediate selectors. Postponed elections remain open until rescheduled or two years from original date. Annulled elections remain open until re-run. Death after election but before taking office still counts as a win. In case of ties, the winner through the jurisdiction's tiebreak mechanism prevails.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bloomberg" sources (5) · single authority
- Bloomberg venue-listed
- the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division source of record venue-listed
- the official election authority conducting election venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
recent wire items
- Progressive Senate primary sweep consensus wavers at majority odds Kalshi 56%
- Kalshi prices a progressive sweep of Democratic Senate primaries at 56%, a slim majority reflecting real uncertainty.
- Mamdani's slate winning New York congressional primaries is the most prominent data point in favor of a broader progressive sweep narrative.
- The companion contract (CM-EVT-QH62PP4D92) puts only 49% on Democrats winning all four core Senate races, showing the party's path remains contested.
- Resolves via Bloomberg; the sweep definition likely requires progressives to win a defined set of Senate primary contests, not just House races.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdemprogressivesenatesweep-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdemprogressivesenatesweep-26nov03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxdemprogressivesenatesweep-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GTBT00NHW6",
"slug": "kxdemprogressivesenatesweep-26nov03",
"question": "Will progressives sweep the Democratic Senate primaries?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"democratic-primaries",
"progressive-politics",
"2027-elections",
"primary-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 29753,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bloomberg",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division",
"url": "https://dppa.un.org/en/electoral-assistance-division",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the official election authority conducting election",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}