Will Democrats win all swing state gubernatorial races by 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
Will Democrats win the governorships of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats win the governorships of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin,… | 2026-11-03 | 34.0% | $10 | $7.1K | A | KXDEMSWINGST…V03 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bloomberg | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Democrats win the governorships of ALL of the following states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market requires ALL specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. If even one loses, the entire market resolves to No. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. For referenda, the specified option must achieve the required threshold. For indirect elections, the ultimate officeholder matters, not intermediate selectors. Postponed elections remain open until rescheduled or two years from original date. Annulled elections remain open until re-run. Death after election but before taking office still counts as a win. In case of ties, the winner through the jurisdiction's tiebreak mechanism prevails.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bloomberg" sources (5) · single authority
- Bloomberg venue-listed
- the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division source of record venue-listed
- the official election authority conducting election venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdemswingstategovsweep-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdemswingstategovsweep-26nov03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxdemswingstategovsweep-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-55NYBQC068",
"slug": "kxdemswingstategovsweep-26nov03",
"question": "Will Democrats win all swing state gubernatorial races by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"swing-state-elections",
"democratic-performance",
"2027-governors",
"multi-outcome-conjunction",
"us-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7089,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bloomberg",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the United Nations Electoral Assistance Division",
"url": "https://dppa.un.org/en/electoral-assistance-division",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the official election authority conducting election",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}