How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (210D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 218-221 | 2027-02-01 | 13.0% | $715 | $5.9K | A | KXDHOUSESEAT…220 | ||
| < 210 | 2027-02-01 | 12.0% | $599 | $13K | A | KXDHOUSESEAT…210 | ||
| 222-225 | 2027-02-01 | 11.0% | $522 | $5.1K | A | KXDHOUSESEAT…224 | ||
| 226-229 | 2027-02-01 | 11.0% | $107 | $4.5K | A | KXDHOUSESEAT…228 | ||
| 230-233 | 2027-02-01 | 11.0% | — | $4.2K | A | KXDHOUSESEAT…232 | ||
| 234-237 | 2027-02-01 | 11.0% | $171 | $3.9K | A | KXDHOUSESEAT…236 | ||
| > 249 | 2027-02-01 | 10.0% | $186 | $13K | A | KXDHOUSESEAT…249 | ||
| 214-217 | 2027-02-01 | 9.2% | — | $4.4K | A | KXDHOUSESEAT…216 | ||
| 238-241 | 2027-02-01 | 8.1% | $32 | $2.5K | A | KXDHOUSESEAT…240 | ||
| 246-249 | 2027-02-01 | 6.0% | $0 | $2.3K | A | KXDHOUSESEAT…248 | ||
| 210-213 | 2027-02-01 | 5.7% | $1 | $3.4K | A | KXDHOUSESEAT…212 | ||
| 242-245 | 2027-02-01 | 4.1% | — | $1.3K | A | KXDHOUSESEAT…244 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Democratic party has below 210 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Individuals caucusing with the Democrats will be included.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
- United States Congress source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdhouseseats-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdhouseseats-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxdhouseseats-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ4LL4MWV8",
"slug": "kxdhouseseats-27",
"question": "How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-house-seats",
"2026-midterms",
"democratic-party",
"election-outcome",
"seat-count"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 63468,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}