Will Democrats hold at least X House seats after the 2022 Midterms? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (243D) ]

Will the Democratic party win below 210 House seats in the 120th Congress?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 12 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
< 210	2027-02-01	13.0%	$392	$13K	A	`KXDHOUSESEAT…210`
Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress	2027-02-01	12.0%	$580	$3.8K	A	`KXDHOUSESEAT…236`
Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress	2027-02-01	10.0%	$9	$4.0K	A	`KXDHOUSESEAT…228`
Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress	2027-02-01	10.0%	$55	$3.7K	A	`KXDHOUSESEAT…232`
Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress	2027-02-01	9.7%	$12	$3.4K	A	`KXDHOUSESEAT…224`
> 249	2027-02-01	9.6%	$86	$11K	A	`KXDHOUSESEAT…249`
Will the Democratic party win 218-221 House seats in the 120th Congress	2027-02-01	8.6%	$6	$3.3K	A	`KXDHOUSESEAT…220`
Will the Democratic party win 238-241 House seats in the 120th Congress	2027-02-01	8.5%	$6	$2.5K	A	`KXDHOUSESEAT…240`
Will the Democratic party win 242-245 House seats in the 120th Congress	2027-02-01	7.1%	$7	$2.1K	A	`KXDHOUSESEAT…244`
Will the Democratic party win 246-249 House seats in the 120th Congress	2027-02-01	6.8%	$27	$2.5K	A	`KXDHOUSESEAT…248`
Will the Democratic party win 214-217 House seats in the 120th Congress	2027-02-01	5.9%	—	$2.5K	A	`KXDHOUSESEAT…216`
Will the Democratic party win 210-213 House seats in the 120th Congress	2027-02-01	4.5%	—	$1.6K	A	`KXDHOUSESEAT…212`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	United States Congress	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 12 markets · share this text

If the Democratic party has below 210 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Democrats will be included.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress"

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdhouseseats-27/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdhouseseats-27.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxdhouseseats-27")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZQ4LL4MWV8",
  "slug": "kxdhouseseats-27",
  "question": "Will Democrats hold at least X House seats after the 2022 Midterms?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-house-seats",
    "2026-midterms",
    "democratic-party",
    "election-outcome",
    "seat-count"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 12,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 53902,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 86,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "United States Congress",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →