Will Miguel Díaz-Canel's departure be announced in 2026? (monthly series) [ resolves 2026-05 – 2027-01 ]

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 6 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
2026-05-01T14:00:00.000Z	2026-05-01	0.1%	—	$121	C	`KXDIAZOUT-MD…Y01`
2026-06-01T14:00:00.000Z	2026-06-01	0.2%	—	$563	C	`KXDIAZOUT-MD…N01`
2026-07-01T14:00:00.000Z	2026-07-01	0.0%	$218	$11K	C	`KXDIAZOUT-MD…L01`
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z	2026-08-01	15.0%	$1	$2.7K	C	`KXDIAZOUT-MD…G01`
2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z	2026-09-01	41.0%	$70	$30K	C	`KXDIAZOUT-MD…P01`
2026-04-01T14:00:00.000Z	2027-01-01	1.0%	—	$1.9K	C	`KXDIAZOUT-MD…R01`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	ABC	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 6 markets · share this text

If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation. Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba. For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC"

sources (14)

ABC venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
Semafor venue-listed
The Information venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
Politico venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
closed	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-04-01T14:00:00.000Z?	kalshi	`2027-01-01`	`—`
NO	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-07-01T14:00:00.000Z?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-06-01T14:00:00.000Z?	kalshi	`2026-06-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-05-01T14:00:00.000Z?	kalshi	`2026-05-01`	`0%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (4 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdiazout-mdc/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdiazout-mdc`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxdiazout-mdc")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FTNVG3MMR2",
  "slug": "kxdiazout-mdc",
  "question": "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel's departure be announced in 2026? (monthly series)",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "cuba-politics",
    "leadership-transition",
    "2026-resolution",
    "political-departure",
    "caribbean-governance"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 6,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 46268,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 43,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "ABC",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →