eBay gross merchandise volume in 2026 [ resolves 2028-03-31 (605D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 17 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $84,000,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 99.0% | — | $2.4K | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $84,500,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 97.0% | — | $3.2K | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $85,000,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 94.0% | — | $427 | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $85,500,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 99.0% | — | $146 | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $86,000,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 93.0% | $1 | $135 | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $86,500,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 79.0% | — | $1.1K | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $87,000,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 70.0% | $19 | $1.7K | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $87,500,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 41.0% | $6 | $481 | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $88,000,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 40.0% | — | $583 | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $88,500,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 37.0% | — | $471 | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $89,000,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 27.0% | — | $189 | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $89,500,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 25.0% | — | $81 | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $90,000,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 22.0% | — | $16 | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $90,500,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 13.0% | — | $778 | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $91,000,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 1.0% | $0 | $68 | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $91,500,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 5.0% | — | $96 | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $92,000,000,000 | 2028-03-31 | 6.0% | $1 | $1.2K | C | KXEBAYA-28JA…0.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fiscal.ai | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If eBay Inc. reports Above 84000000000.0 gross merchandise volume in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fiscal.ai" sources (1)
Fiscal.ai committed source
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxebaya-28jangmv/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxebaya-28jangmv |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxebaya-28jangmv") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KWNGXMBFL6",
"slug": "kxebaya-28jangmv",
"question": "eBay gross merchandise volume in 2026",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"ebay",
"gross-merchandise-volume",
"ecommerce",
"financial-metrics",
"2028"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 17,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13021,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fiscal.ai",
"url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}