Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 17 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uganda | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $5.8K | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…UGA | ||
| South Sudan | 2027-01-01 | 57.0% | $30 | $13K | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…SUD | ||
| Burundi | 2027-01-01 | 31.0% | $9 | $3.1K | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…BUR | ||
| Rwanda | 2027-01-01 | 29.0% | $9 | $13K | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…RWA | ||
| Central African Republic | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | $35 | $1.4K | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…CAR | ||
| Tanzania | 2027-01-01 | 23.0% | $40 | $1.5K | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…ANZ | ||
| Kenya | 2027-01-01 | 22.0% | $57 | $6.5K | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…KEN | ||
| Republic of the Congo | 2027-01-01 | 22.0% | $2 | $18K | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…DOC | ||
| Zambia | 2027-01-01 | 22.0% | — | $720 | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…AMB | ||
| United States | 2027-01-01 | 21.0% | $78 | $15K | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…USA | ||
| Nigeria | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | — | $855 | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…IGE | ||
| India | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | — | $2.9K | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…IND | ||
| Angola | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | — | $479 | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…ANG | ||
| China | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | $133 | $3.5K | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…CHI | ||
| Canada | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $1 | $474 | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…CAN | ||
| Ethiopia | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $418 | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…THI | ||
| Somalia | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $455 | A | KXEBOLACOUNT…OMA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the relevant national, international, or subnational health agencies for <geography>, | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in United States is officially reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed in United States — a citizen of United States diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed within United States do count. Resolution is based on the date of official confirmation, not symptom onset. Cases confirmed after Jan 1, 2027 do not qualify even if infection occurred earlier.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the relevant national, international, or subnational health agencies for <geography>," sources (7) · single authority
the relevant national, international, or subnational health agencies for <geography>, venue-listed Bloomberg venue-listed CDC committed source the World Health Organization venue-listed New York Times venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Associated Press venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxebolacountry-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxebolacountry-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxebolacountry-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DN28WM8N95",
"slug": "kxebolacountry-27",
"question": "Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ebola-outbreak",
"disease-reporting",
"global-health",
"infectious-disease",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 17,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 87029,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the relevant national, international, or subnational health agencies for ," ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CDC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the relevant national, international, or subnational health agencies for ," ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CDC",
"url": "https://www.cdc.gov/index.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the World Health Organization",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}