Will at least one country report an Ebola disease case before July? [ resolved 2026-07-01 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $206 | $954 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…USA | ||
| China | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $1 | $84 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…CHI | ||
| India | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $59 | $975 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…IND | ||
| South Sudan | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $4 | $718 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…SUD | ||
| Kenya | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $197 | $1.0K | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…KEN | ||
| Rwanda | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $121 | $733 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…RWA | ||
| Burundi | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $23 | $91 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…BUR | ||
| Republic of the Congo | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $183 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…CON | ||
| Canada | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $74 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…ANA | ||
| Ethiopia | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $2 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…THI | ||
| Nigeria | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $38 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…IGE | ||
| Somalia | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $2 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…SOM | ||
| Angola | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $111 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…ANG | ||
| Central African Republic | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $28 | $29 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…CAR | ||
| Tanzania | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $22 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…ANZ | ||
| Zambia | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $245 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…AMB |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in United States is officially reported before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed in United States — a citizen of United States diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed within United States do count. Resolution is based on the date of official confirmation, not symptom onset. Cases confirmed after Jul 1, 2026 do not qualify even if infection occurred earlier.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Nigeria be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (16 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxebolacountry-jul26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxebolacountry-jul26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxebolacountry-jul26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L3YGD5GZW2",
"slug": "kxebolacountry-jul26",
"question": "Will at least one country report an Ebola disease case before July?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ebola-outbreak",
"disease-epidemiology",
"multiple-country-resolution",
"public-health-reporting",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5309,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 44,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}