State of the economy at the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-13 (162D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-13 | 61.7% | — | $11K | A | KXECONPATH-26-SOFT | ||
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-13 | 29.5% | $61 | $2.5K | A | KXECONPATH-2…EAT | ||
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-13 | 9.0% | $3 | $2.4K | A | KXECONPATH-26-STAG | ||
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-13 | 3.1% | — | $120 | A | KXECONPATH-2…ACK |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Economic Data | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Economic Data" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Federal Reserve Economic Data venue-listed Federal Reserve Economic Data venue-listed Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
recent wire items
- Economy-end-2026 outlook carries a premium across venues Polymarket 61% vs Kalshi 55%
- Polymarket prices this 6pp higher than Kalshi, 61% vs 55%, a meaningful spread on a soft macro call.
- Polymarket is the higher-priced venue with roughly three times the cumulative volume behind it.
- Thinner liquidity on Kalshi may reflect ambiguity in the resolution criteria for a qualitative 'state of economy' claim.
- Resolution likely hinges on a designated index, panel, or editorial call, subjective definitions can drive venue-level disagreement.
- Economy-end-2026 outlook carries a premium across venues Polymarket 63% vs Kalshi 55%
- Polymarket prices the positive outcome at 63%, Kalshi at 55%, an 8pp spread.
- Polymarket sits higher with significantly deeper liquidity; Kalshi volume is thin by comparison.
- Vague resolution language likely drives the gap, 'state of economy' leaves room for subjective calls, and deeper-liquid venues often converge on more cautious reads.
- Resolution depends on which economic indicators or editorial criteria the market operator designates at year-end.
- Economy-state odds hold apart across the major prediction desks Polymarket 65% vs Kalshi 59%
- Polymarket prices a strong economy at end-2026 at 65%, Kalshi at 59%, a 6pp gap.
- Polymarket is higher and carries roughly 2.6x more cumulative volume than Kalshi.
- Differing resolution criteria between venues is the most plausible driver; how 'strong' is defined matters enormously here.
- Resolves based on each platform's stated economic benchmark at Dec 31, 2026.
- Recession-state odds build a spread on the major prediction desks Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 11%
- Kalshi prices 11%, Polymarket 6%, a 6pp gap on the recession outcome of the same claim
- Kalshi is the higher venue; liquidity is modest on both sides ($3,011 vs $10,359)
- Kalshi's higher recession probability may reflect a different interpretation of the resolution criteria or audience composition
- Resolves YES if a defined recession condition is met by end of 2026 per the claim's source methodology
- Economy-condition odds diverge across venues heading into year-end Polymarket 53% vs Kalshi 59%
- Kalshi prices 59%, Polymarket 53%, a 6pp gap on the same economic-state outcome
- Kalshi is the higher venue; Polymarket has 2.4x more liquidity ($30,768 vs $12,644)
- Outcome definition ambiguity, what counts as a 'good' economy, may be driving venue-specific interpretation differences
- Resolution likely tied to a specific GDP, unemployment, or composite index reading at year-end 2026
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxeconpath-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxeconpath-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxeconpath-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
"slug": "kxeconpath-26",
"question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economic-outlook",
"macro-assessment",
"eoy-2026",
"resolution-2027",
"subjective-judgment"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16491,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
"url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
"url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}