Will core CPI year-over-year be below 3% in July 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-12 (37D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 18.0% | — | $37 | A | KXECONSTATCO…2.9 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 16.0% | — | $48 | A | KXECONSTATCO…3.1 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 15.0% | — | $45 | A | KXECONSTATCO…3.0 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 14.0% | — | $9 | A | KXECONSTATCO…3.5 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 12.0% | — | $36 | A | KXECONSTATCO…3.2 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 11.0% | — | $7 | A | KXECONSTATCO…3.3 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 9.0% | — | $701 | A | KXECONSTATCO…2.6 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 9.0% | $36 | $791 | A | KXECONSTATCO…2.8 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 8.0% | — | $16K | A | KXECONSTATCO…2.5 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 8.0% | — | $8 | A | KXECONSTATCO…3.4 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 6.0% | — | $543 | A | KXECONSTATCO…2.4 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 5.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXECONSTATCO…2.3 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 3.0% | — | $2 | A | KXECONSTATCO…3.6 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 3.0% | — | $7.9K | A | KXECONSTATCO…3.7 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 2.0% | — | $866 | A | KXECONSTATCO…2.2 | ||
| CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXECONSTATCO…2.7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.2% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2HHFZDLC17",
"slug": "kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26jul",
"question": "Will core CPI year-over-year be below 3% in July 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"cpi-core",
"us-inflation",
"economic-indicator",
"2026",
"monthly-data"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 29109,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}