CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the unemployment rate be below 4% in July 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-07 (3D) ]

kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 23 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 35.0%
$712 $6.7K
B KXECONSTATU3…4.3
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 27.0%
$163 $3.6K
B KXECONSTATU3…4.2
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 24.0%
$156 $1.5K
B KXECONSTATU3…4.1
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 7.0%
$0 $199
B KXECONSTATU3…4.0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 6.0%
$2
B KXECONSTATU3…3.3
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 6.0%
$0
B KXECONSTATU3…3.4
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 5.0%
$0 $126
B KXECONSTATU3…4.4
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 5.0%
$12
B KXECONSTATU3…4.8
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 5.0%
$2
B KXECONSTATU3…5.0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 2.0%
$1
B KXECONSTATU3…3.5
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 2.0%
$2
B KXECONSTATU3…3.6
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 2.0%
$1
B KXECONSTATU3…3.7
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 2.0%
$1
B KXECONSTATU3…3.8
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 2.0%
$138
B KXECONSTATU3…4.5
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 2.0%
$424
B KXECONSTATU3…4.6
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 2.0%
$15
B KXECONSTATU3…4.7
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 2.0%
$1
B KXECONSTATU3…5.1
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 2.0%
$1
B KXECONSTATU3…5.2
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 2.0%
$1
B KXECONSTATU3…5.3
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 2.0%
$1
B KXECONSTATU3…5.4
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 2.0%
$1
B KXECONSTATU3…5.5
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 1.0%
$1
B KXECONSTATU3…3.9
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 2026-08-07 1.0%
$1
B KXECONSTATU3…4.9
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 23 markets · share this text
If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.3% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation"
sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxeconstatu3-26jul/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxeconstatu3-26jul
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxeconstatu3-26jul")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DZD4C9WZB5",
  "slug": "kxeconstatu3-26jul",
  "question": "Will the unemployment rate be below 4% in July 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "unemployment",
    "labor-market",
    "economic-data",
    "us-economy",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 23,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 12795,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 70,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →