Will the unemployment rate be below 4% in July 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-07 (3D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 23 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 35.0% | $712 | $6.7K | B | KXECONSTATU3…4.3 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 27.0% | $163 | $3.6K | B | KXECONSTATU3…4.2 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 24.0% | $156 | $1.5K | B | KXECONSTATU3…4.1 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 7.0% | $0 | $199 | B | KXECONSTATU3…4.0 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 6.0% | — | $2 | B | KXECONSTATU3…3.3 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 6.0% | — | $0 | B | KXECONSTATU3…3.4 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 5.0% | $0 | $126 | B | KXECONSTATU3…4.4 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 5.0% | — | $12 | B | KXECONSTATU3…4.8 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 5.0% | — | $2 | B | KXECONSTATU3…5.0 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | — | $1 | B | KXECONSTATU3…3.5 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | — | $2 | B | KXECONSTATU3…3.6 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | — | $1 | B | KXECONSTATU3…3.7 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | — | $1 | B | KXECONSTATU3…3.8 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | — | $138 | B | KXECONSTATU3…4.5 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | — | $424 | B | KXECONSTATU3…4.6 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | — | $15 | B | KXECONSTATU3…4.7 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | — | $1 | B | KXECONSTATU3…5.1 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | — | $1 | B | KXECONSTATU3…5.2 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | — | $1 | B | KXECONSTATU3…5.3 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | — | $1 | B | KXECONSTATU3…5.4 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 2.0% | — | $1 | B | KXECONSTATU3…5.5 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 1.0% | — | $1 | B | KXECONSTATU3…3.9 | ||
| Unemployment rate in Jul 2026 | 2026-08-07 | 1.0% | — | $1 | B | KXECONSTATU3…4.9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Unemployment rate is exactly 3.3% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxeconstatu3-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxeconstatu3-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxeconstatu3-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DZD4C9WZB5",
"slug": "kxeconstatu3-26jul",
"question": "Will the unemployment rate be below 4% in July 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"unemployment",
"labor-market",
"economic-data",
"us-economy",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 23,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12795,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 70,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}