Effective Federal Funds Rate, July 1, 2026 [ resolved 2026-07-01 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3% | 2026-07-01 | 100.0% | — | $941 | A | KXEFFR-26JUL….00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-07-01 | 100.0% | — | $3.3K | A | KXEFFR-26JUL….25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-07-01 | 100.0% | — | $2.5K | A | KXEFFR-26JUL….50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXEFFR-26JUL….75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $7 | A | KXEFFR-26JUL….00 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 is above 3.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.00%? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 100% |
| YES | Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.25%? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 100% |
| YES | Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.50%? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 100% |
| NO | Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 3.75%? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for June 30, 2026 be above 4.00%? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (5 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxeffr-26jul01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxeffr-26jul01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxeffr-26jul01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-85LZKDJL71",
"slug": "kxeffr-26jul01",
"question": "Effective Federal Funds Rate, July 1, 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"us-monetary-policy",
"q2-2026",
"interest-rates",
"economic-indicators"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6728,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}