Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 5 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of…	2027-01-01	16.0%	$348	$100K	A	`KXELECTIONBI…N01`
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of…	2027-01-01	4.0%	$16	$3.3K	A	`KXELECTIONBI…G01`
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of…	2027-01-01	2.0%	$9	$90	A	`KXELECTIONBI…L01`
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of…	2027-01-01	1.0%	—	$130	A	`KXELECTIONBI…N01`
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of…	2027-01-01	0.9%	—	$14K	A	`KXELECTIONBI…Y01`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	White House	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 5 markets · share this text

If legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections has become law after Issuance and before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An example of this is H.R. 22 (119th) — SAVE Act and H.R. 7296 (119th) — SAVE America Act. The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House"

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxelectionbill/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxelectionbill.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxelectionbill")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-G8CYMWNWC6",
  "slug": "kxelectionbill",
  "question": "Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-voter-registration",
    "citizenship-requirements",
    "federal-legislation",
    "election-policy",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 5,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 117292,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "White House",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →