Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2027-01 ]
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | 2026-05-01 | 0.9% | — | $14K | A | KXELECTIONBI…Y01 | ||
| Jun 1, 2026 | 2026-06-01 | 1.0% | — | $130 | A | KXELECTIONBI…N01 | ||
| Jul 1, 2026 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $170 | A | KXELECTIONBI…L01 | ||
| Aug 1, 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 4.0% | $46 | $5.4K | A | KXELECTIONBI…G01 | ||
| Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | $54 | $84K | A | KXELECTIONBI…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections has become law May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House" sources (2) · single authority
- White House venue-listed
- Library of Congress source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jun 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 1% |
| NO | Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before May 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-01 | 1% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Proof-of-citizenship voting rule wavers at slim 15 percent Kalshi 15%
- Kalshi puts only 15% probability on proof of citizenship becoming a federal voter registration requirement.
- The SAVE Act's legislative stall, stuck between House and Senate despite GOP majorities, is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing.
- At 15%, the market is treating passage as a low-probability tail event, not a near-term policy shift.
- Resolves via White House confirmation of whether the requirement is signed into law.
- Proof-of-citizenship voter registration pricing absorbs EAC firings Kalshi 12%
- Kalshi prices 12% on proof of citizenship being required for federal voter registration, resolves via White House; trading volume up 12,096% day over day.
- The EAC firings drew massive fresh trading volume, signaling the market is absorbing the news as a potential pathway toward stricter voter ID rules.
- Despite the volume surge, the Kalshi price holds at just 12%, meaning the market views the EAC action as insufficient on its own to lock in the outcome.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-SGDQ0483R0) prices only 18% on Trump declaring election interference a national emergency, consistent with the low voter ID odds.
- Proof of citizenship for federal registration holds at low odds Kalshi 10%
- The Kalshi contract prices only 10% on proof of citizenship being required for federal voter registration, resolved via White House announcement.
- Trump's EAC purge signals aggressive intent on voting rules, yet the market's 10% price shows prediction-market capital is skeptical the specific citizenship-proof requirement becomes law.
- The SAVE Act, a related Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-QFC5QGJS96), sits at 8%, confirming the market sees the legislative and regulatory pathway for citizenship requirements as largely blocked.
- Resolves via White House official announcement of a federal regulation or enacted law; executive orders that are enjoined by courts would complicate resolution.
- Citizenship proof for federal voter registration wavers at low odds Kalshi 15%
- Kalshi prices only 15% on proof of citizenship becoming a federal voter registration requirement, despite active White House pressure.
- Federal judges have blocked Trump's election executive orders, and Senate Republican resistance to the SAVE America Act is consistent with the low Kalshi probability.
- Companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) at 40% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after midterms suggests GOP legislative leverage is itself uncertain.
- Resolves via the White House; a formal regulatory or legislative implementation of the citizenship requirement triggers YES.
- Proof-of-citizenship voter registration fractures against passage Kalshi 15%
- Kalshi prices only 15% on proof of citizenship becoming a federal voter registration requirement, resolving via the White House.
- Trump's threat to hold the housing bill hostage over the SAVE Act is not moving the market; 15% reflects the Senate vote-count obstacle reported in news coverage.
- A separate story (Story 14) reports Trump subsequently caved and agreed to transmit the housing bill without the SAVE Act passing, consistent with the low 15% market price.
- Resolves via White House confirmation of a signed law or executive order; the market is pricing the SAVE Act as a negotiating tool, not a likely legislative outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxelectionbill/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxelectionbill |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxelectionbill") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G8CYMWNWC6",
"slug": "kxelectionbill",
"question": "Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-voter-registration",
"citizenship-requirements",
"federal-legislation",
"election-policy",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 103673,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://congress.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}