Will Trump declare an election emergency? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2026-11 ]
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the White House" sources (3) · single authority
- the White House source of record venue-listed
- Federal Register venue-listed
- the President of the United States venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before May 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-08 | 1% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Election emergency declaration pricing holds skeptical Kalshi 23%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices a 23% chance Trump declares an election emergency, resolving via the White House.
- EAC dissolution removes a key institutional check on election administration, but the market is pricing only modest escalation odds toward a formal emergency declaration.
- The 91% on-schedule midterm contract (CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5) and the 23% emergency declaration contract are directionally consistent: markets see disruption as probable but outright cancellation or emergency as a tail.
- Resolution requires an official White House declaration; the gap between the EAC firing news and the 23% price suggests markets are treating this as political pressure, not constitutional crisis.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxelectionemergency/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxelectionemergency |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxelectionemergency") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Q72X90WT99",
"slug": "kxelectionemergency",
"question": "Will Trump declare an election emergency?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"trump",
"emergency-declaration",
"2026",
"executive-action"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11596,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the White House",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the White House",
"url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Register",
"url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the President of the United States",
"url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}