When will Venezuela hold a presidential election? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2027-06 ]
Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2027?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $49 | C | KXELECTVENEZ…N01 | ||
| Sep 1, 2026 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $822 | C | KXELECTVENEZ…P01 | ||
| Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 5.1% | — | $2.0K | C | KXELECTVENEZ…N01 | ||
| Apr 1, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $474 | C | KXELECTVENEZ…R01 | ||
| Jun 1, 2027 | 2027-06-01 | 36.0% | — | $6.4K | C | KXELECTVENEZ…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fox News | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Venezuela holds a presidential election before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fox News" sources (14)
Fox News venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Semafor venue-listed ABC venue-listed The Information venue-listed CBS venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed Axios venue-listed CNN venue-listed Reuters venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed Politico venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Sep 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Venezuela holding a presidential election stays near long-shot odds Kalshi 36%
- Kalshi puts 36% odds on Venezuela holding a presidential election, pricing the outcome as unlikely despite the new U.S.-Venezuela oil deal.
- Trump's diplomatic opening with Caracas is not yet translating into market confidence in democratic transition; the 36% print suggests skepticism about political reform as a deal condition.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-M49M1D05V5) puts only 9% on Trump endorsing opposition leader Maria Corina Machado for Venezuelan president, indicating markets do not expect the deal to come with a democratic push.
- Kalshi resolves via Fox News confirmation of an election; the contract's below-50% pricing implies markets view the Maduro government retaining power as the base case regardless of the oil agreement.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxelectvenezuela/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxelectvenezuela |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxelectvenezuela") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F1G1G8F7P2",
"slug": "kxelectvenezuela",
"question": "When will Venezuela hold a presidential election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"venezuela-politics",
"election-timing",
"latin-america",
"political-events",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9686,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 46,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Fox News",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}