Will there be emergency rate cuts in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings | 2026-12-31 | 86.5% | — | $152K | A | KXEMERCUTS-26-T0 | ||
| Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings | 2026-12-31 | 3.3% | $2 | $2.9K | A | KXEMERCUTS-26-T1 | ||
| Will the Fed cut rates 2 times at emergency meetings | 2026-12-31 | 8.5% | $2 | $2.7K | A | KXEMERCUTS-26-T2 | ||
| Will the Fed cut rates 3 times at emergency meetings | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | — | $4.4K | A | KXEMERCUTS-26-T3 | ||
| Will the Fed cut rates 4 times at emergency meetings | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $30 | A | KXEMERCUTS-26-T4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 0 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.
To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Federal Reserve source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxemercuts-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxemercuts-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxemercuts-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4D6X8P7422",
"slug": "kxemercuts-26",
"question": "Will there be emergency rate cuts in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"emergency-decisions",
"2026-economy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 162198,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}