Who will AOC endorse by the 2026 election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (103D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 7 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan Senate	2026-11-03	97.0%	—	$3.3K	C	`KXENDORSEAOC…ELS`
Claire Valdez in NY-07	2026-11-03	85.0%	—	$4.7K	C	`KXENDORSEAOC…VAL`
Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13	2026-11-03	77.0%	—	$9.3K	C	`KXENDORSEAOC…CHE`
Cori Bush in MO-01	2026-11-03	57.0%	—	$2.0K	C	`KXENDORSEAOC…BUS`
Connie Chan in CA-11	2026-11-03	11.0%	—	$347	C	`KXENDORSEAOC…CHA`
Graham Platner in Maine Senate	2026-11-03	1.0%	—	$109	C	`KXENDORSEAOC…PLA`
Nida Allam in NC-04	2026-11-03	1.0%	—	$94	C	`KXENDORSEAOC…ALL`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	official social media accounts controlled by <person>	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 7 markets · share this text

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the nominee's election. The statement must be public (not private communications) and specifically reference the race or be clearly in context of the race. The endorsement must come directly from the person or through their official channels. Positive comments without explicit support, policy endorsements without nominee endorsement, or conditional endorsements do not qualify. Social media endorsements count only from verified accounts, and likes or retweets alone do not constitute endorsement. Quote tweets with additional supportive commentary do count. Sarcastic statements or those immediately clarified as jokes do not qualify.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "official social media accounts controlled by <person>"

sources (18)

official social media accounts controlled by <person> venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
official campaign announcements from <candidate> venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
ABC venue-listed
Politico EU venue-listed
NBC venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
Politico venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
official statements from organizations where <person> holds a leadership position venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
Bloomberg News venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Nida Allam in NC-04 before Nov 3, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-14`	`1%`
NO	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-13`	`1%`
YES	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan Senate before Nov 3, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-02`	`97%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxendorseaoc-26nov03/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxendorseaoc-26nov03`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxendorseaoc-26nov03")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RPRRY6WKJ5",
  "slug": "kxendorseaoc-26nov03",
  "question": "Who will AOC endorse by the 2026 election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "aoc-endorsement",
    "2026-election",
    "us-politics",
    "candidate-support",
    "maine-senate"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 7,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 19839,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 58,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "official social media accounts controlled by ",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "official social media accounts controlled by ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official campaign announcements from ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico EU",
      "url": "https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#starmer-approval",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official statements from organizations where  holds a leadership position",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →