Ethereum maximum price, January 1, 2027 [ resolves 2027-01-31 (180D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $3,500 | 2027-01-31 | 14.0% | $354 | $57K | A | KXETHMAXY-27….00 | ||
| ≥ $3,750 | 2027-01-31 | 11.0% | $3 | $19K | A | KXETHMAXY-27….00 | ||
| ≥ $4,000 | 2027-01-31 | 9.0% | $113 | $22K | A | KXETHMAXY-27….00 | ||
| ≥ $4,250 | 2027-01-31 | 8.0% | $2 | $10K | A | KXETHMAXY-27….00 | ||
| ≥ $4,500 | 2027-01-31 | 9.0% | — | $22K | A | KXETHMAXY-27….00 | ||
| ≥ $4,750 | 2027-01-31 | 5.0% | $2 | $13K | A | KXETHMAXY-27….00 | ||
| ≥ $5,000 | 2027-01-31 | 5.0% | — | $16K | A | KXETHMAXY-27….00 | ||
| ≥ $6,000 | 2027-01-31 | 4.0% | — | $18K | A | KXETHMAXY-27….00 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is above 3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Ethereum price is measured using the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) with a trimmed mean calculation that excludes the top 20% and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute values between market issuance and the target time. The market resolves based on whether the trimmed mean price reaches the specified level by the deadline. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Price data from CF Benchmarks is considered authoritative and revisions after expiration do not affect market resolution.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- Ethereum below $3,500 by year-end stays the market consensus Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices only 19% odds Ethereum reaches above $3,500 before January 1, 2027, with probability falling steeply to 9% at $4,000.
- CFTC regulatory exploration of blockchain infrastructure under the CLARITY Act is a longer-term catalyst; the market is not pricing near-term Ethereum upside from it.
- A companion Solana ladder puts only 26% odds on Solana above $150 before year-end, suggesting broad altcoin upside skepticism despite the regulatory news.
- Ethereum is trading near $2,500 per spot data in the newswire context, placing current price roughly 40% below the 19% threshold strike at $3,500.
- Ethereum above $3500 by year-end holds below 35% odds Kalshi ladder
- Polymarket ladder puts 34% on Ethereum exceeding $3500 by January 1, 2027, falling to 8% at $5000 and 6% at $6000, with trading volume up 104x day-over-day.
- Bitcoin's rally above $84,000 and record ETF inflows are drawing fresh attention to the ETH contract, as evidenced by the massive volume spike, but the market is not pricing a breakout.
- The ladder's sharp drop from 34% at $3500 to 19% at $4000 shows the market sees the $3500-$4000 range as the realistic ceiling rather than a launchpad.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the contract measures Ethereum's spot price at a specific timestamp on January 1, 2027, intraday volatility on that date is the key settlement edge case.
- Ethereum above $3,500 by year-end stays below 50% odds Kalshi ladder
- The Ethereum ladder prices 33% on ETH clearing $3,500 by January 1, 2027, with odds dropping to 18% above $4,000 and 8% above $5,000.
- Despite bullish institutional Bitcoin narratives, the Ethereum ladder shows the market is skeptical of a strong ETH recovery to prior highs by year-end.
- Bitcoin's own prediction market (CM-EVT-3CQP3GL0Y1) puts just 3% on BTC exceeding $250,000 by 2027, indicating even Bitcoin bull cases remain long shots at the top end.
- Resolution uses Kalshi's standard crypto price source; the gap between 33% at $3,500 and 6% at $5,000 shows the market prices a wide range of possible ETH outcomes.
- Ethereum above $3,500 by year-end stays below 50% Kalshi ladder
- The ladder prices only 35% odds Ethereum exceeds $3,500 by January 1, 2027, dropping to 22% above $3,750 and 18% above $4,000.
- Bitcoin trading near $84,000 and bullish momentum signals are not translating into high-conviction Ethereum upside; the market prices ETH upside as a minority outcome.
- The sharp drop from 35% at $3,500 to 22% at $3,750 indicates the $3,500 level is a genuine resistance point in market-implied distribution, not just a rounding artifact.
- Bitcoin above $250,000 by 2027 is priced at only 2% on Kalshi (CM-EVT-3CQP3GL0Y1), suggesting the broader crypto bull case is treated as speculative across multiple contracts.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxethmaxy-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxethmaxy-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxethmaxy-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G2G3Y09R59",
"slug": "kxethmaxy-27jan01",
"question": "Ethereum maximum price, January 1, 2027",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"ethereum-price",
"crypto-markets",
"2027-resolution",
"price-prediction",
"blockchain-assets"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 175992,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}