Ethereum minimum price, January 1, 2027 [ resolves 2027-01-31 (209D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $750 | 2027-01-31 | 14.0% | — | $5.8K | A | KXETHMINY-27…750 | ||
| ≤ $1,000 | 2027-01-31 | 32.0% | — | $48K | A | KXETHMINY-27…000 | ||
| ≤ $1,250 | 2027-01-31 | 65.0% | — | $150K | A | KXETHMINY-27…250 | ||
| ≤ $1,500 | 2027-01-31 | 85.0% | — | $158K | A | KXETHMINY-27…500 | ||
| ≤ $1,750 | 2027-01-31 | 97.0% | — | $143K | A | KXETHMINY-27…750 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is below 1750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Ethereum price is measured using the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) with a trimmed mean calculation that excludes the top 20% and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute values between market issuance and the target time. The market resolves based on whether the trimmed mean price reaches the specified level by the deadline. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Price data from CF Benchmarks is considered authoritative and revisions after expiration do not affect market resolution.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" sources (2) · single authority
- CF Benchmarks source of record venue-listed
- CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Ethereum reach below $1750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET? | kalshi | 2027-01-31 | 97% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- ETH end-2026 downside floor pricing nears $1000-$1250 implied range Kalshi ladder
- Polymarket's ETH ladder prices 14% below $750 and 32% below $1,000 by January 1 2027, implying a market floor near $1,000-$1,250.
- The $84 million ETH liquidation wave is consistent with bearish positioning, but the 85% above $1,500 bucket shows the market does not price a deep crash as base case.
- The ETH above $3,500 contract (CM-EVT-G2G3Y09R59) sits at only 16%, confirming the market sees a wide range with the upside tail pricing near-zero.
- Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle at 12:00 AM ET on January 1, 2027; the six-month horizon means near-term liquidation events do not directly determine resolution.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxethminy-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxethminy-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxethminy-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPYKMKR9X3",
"slug": "kxethminy-27jan01",
"question": "Ethereum minimum price, January 1, 2027",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"ethereum-price",
"crypto-markets",
"price-floor",
"2026",
"volatility-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 504931,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}