Median sales price of existing homes, July 2026 [ resolved 2026-08-11 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $415,000 | 2026-08-11 | 100.0% | — | $34 | A | KXEXUSHOME-2…000 | ||
| ≥ $420,000 | 2026-08-11 | 100.0% | — | $657 | A | KXEXUSHOME-2…000 | ||
| ≥ $425,000 | 2026-08-11 | 100.0% | — | $2.2K | A | KXEXUSHOME-2…000 | ||
| ≥ $430,000 | 2026-08-11 | 100.0% | $22 | $2.0K | A | KXEXUSHOME-2…000 | ||
| ≥ $435,000 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | $20 | $1.1K | A | KXEXUSHOME-2…000 | ||
| ≥ $440,000 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXEXUSHOME-2…000 | ||
| ≥ $445,000 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | $527 | A | KXEXUSHOME-2…000 | ||
| ≥ $450,000 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | $70 | A | KXEXUSHOME-2…000 | ||
| ≥ $455,000 | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | $20 | A | KXEXUSHOME-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | FRED Existing Home Price | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 is above $415,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the July 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "FRED Existing Home Price" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $415,000? | kalshi | 2026-08-11 | 100% |
| YES | Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $420,000? | kalshi | 2026-08-11 | 100% |
| YES | Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $425,000? | kalshi | 2026-08-11 | 100% |
| YES | Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $430,000? | kalshi | 2026-08-11 | 100% |
| NO | Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $435,000? | kalshi | 2026-08-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $440,000? | kalshi | 2026-08-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $445,000? | kalshi | 2026-08-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $450,000? | kalshi | 2026-08-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $455,000? | kalshi | 2026-08-11 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (9 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxexushome-26aug11/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxexushome-26aug11 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxexushome-26aug11") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LDYJYPTVY5",
"slug": "kxexushome-26aug11",
"question": "Median sales price of existing homes, July 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-housing-market",
"median-price-index",
"economic-data",
"july-2026",
"real-estate-sales"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7624,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "FRED Existing Home Price",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "FRED Existing Home Price",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "FRED Existing Home Price",
"url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "FRED",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}