Will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2027-01 ]
When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk… | 2026-04-22 | 2.0% | — | $14 | A | KXFDAANNOUNC…R15 | ||
| When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk… | 2026-05-08 | 1.0% | — | $22 | A | KXFDAANNOUNC…Y01 | ||
| When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk… | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $305 | A | KXFDAANNOUNC…L01 | ||
| When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk… | 2026-09-08 | 29.0% | — | $3.2K | A | KXFDAANNOUNC…P01 | ||
| When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk… | 2026-11-08 | 55.0% | — | $939 | A | KXFDAANNOUNC…V01 | ||
| When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk… | 2027-01-08 | 68.0% | — | $1.1K | A | KXFDAANNOUNC…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Food and Drug Administration | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the FDA announces Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List before Apr 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Payout Criterion is satisfied by placement of BPC-157 in either Category 1 or Category 1 Bulk Drug Substances Under Evaluation on the 503A Bulk Drug Substances list, as either designation restores compounding eligibility.
Removal from Category 2 alone, without placement in Category 1, does not satisfy the Payout Criterion.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Food and Drug Administration" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Food and Drug Administration source of record venue-listed
- FDA announces from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List? | kalshi | 2026-05-08 | 1% |
| NO | When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List? | kalshi | 2026-04-22 | 2% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfdaannounce-bpc/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfdaannounce-bpc |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfdaannounce-bpc") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1BNKFN8JX3",
"slug": "kxfdaannounce-bpc",
"question": "Will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"fda-regulation",
"drug-classification",
"bpc-157",
"bulk-drug-substances",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5552,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Food and Drug Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Food and Drug Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Food and Drug Administration",
"url": "https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "FDA announces",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}