Will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 psilocybin? (multi-deadline series, 2027-2028) [ resolves 2027-01 – 2028-01 ]
Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Mar 1, 2027?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression… | 2027-01-08 | 19.0% | — | $27 | A | KXFDAAPPROVA…N01 | ||
| Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression… | 2027-03-08 | 49.0% | — | $81 | A | KXFDAAPPROVA…R01 | ||
| When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression | 2027-07-08 | 76.0% | $20 | $5.6K | A | KXFDAAPPROVA…L01 | ||
| When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression | 2027-10-08 | 77.0% | — | $1.6K | A | KXFDAAPPROVA…T01 | ||
| When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression | 2028-01-08 | 92.0% | — | $214 | A | KXFDAAPPROVA…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Food and Drug Administration | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Food and Drug Administration" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Food and Drug Administration source of record venue-listed
- FDA from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfdaapprovaldatecmps-360/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfdaapprovaldatecmps-360 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfdaapprovaldatecmps-360") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QSB3J43MQ3",
"slug": "kxfdaapprovaldatecmps-360",
"question": "Will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 psilocybin? (multi-deadline series, 2027-2028)",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"psilocybin-therapy",
"fda-approval",
"mental-health-treatment",
"biotech-regulation",
"compass-pathways"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7525,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Food and Drug Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Food and Drug Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Food and Drug Administration",
"url": "https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "FDA",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}