Federal funds rate upper bound, December 2026 meeting [ resolves 2026-12-16 (134D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-12-16 | 98.0% | — | $16K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-12-16 | 98.0% | — | $7.7K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-12-16 | 98.0% | — | $11K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-12-16 | 86.0% | — | $20K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-12-16 | 68.0% | $204 | $15K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-12-16 | 31.0% | $130 | $3.1K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-12-16 | 6.0% | — | $407 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $13 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-12-16 | 2.0% | $0 | $13 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $11 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $9 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Federal Reserve Board of Governors committed source Federal Reserve's official website from rules text Federal Reserve statement from rules text
recent wire items
- Markets put short odds on a rate hike above 4 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) implies the later-cycle Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.00% range, with 72% above 3.75% but only 31% above 4.00%.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller's pause signal aligns with near-term hold pricing, but this longer-horizon ladder shows meaningful odds a hike above 4.00% is still on the table.
- The spread between this ladder and the September ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91, 2% above 4.00%) shows the market pricing pause now but keeping a hike optionality later.
- Kalshi contract resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate announcement for the relevant meeting date.
- Fed funds above 4 percent stays a long shot after Jackson Hole Kalshi ladder
- Ladder pins the implied upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 91% above 3.50%, 75% above 3.75%, but only 42% above 4.0%.
- Warsh's Jackson Hole pivot pushed markets toward a hike, but the ladder shows the consensus stopping short of 4.0%, not fully embracing an aggressive move.
- A second ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) is far more compressed: only 62% above 3.75% and 2% above 4.0%, suggesting significant disagreement across market participants on the September endpoint.
- Resolution turns on the actual FOMC statement following the September meeting; the spread between the two ladders signals meaningful uncertainty about whether a hike lands at all.
- Fed funds upper bound seen near 3.75 to 4 percent Kalshi ladder
- The prediction market ladder pins the fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 76% above 3.75% but only 34% above 4.0%.
- Warsh's hawkish tone is consistent with the market leaning toward 3.75-4.0%, but the 34% at 4.0% reflects lingering skepticism about a full hike cycle.
- The near-term ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) shows only 59% above 3.75% and just 1% above 4.0%, suggesting markets are split on whether hikes materialize before a closer horizon.
- The spread between the two ladders reveals genuine timeline uncertainty: the market agrees on the destination range but not the timing.
- Fed funds above 4 percent after September stays a long shot Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the post-September Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 93% chance above 3.50%, but only 37% above 4.0%.
- Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech is partially consistent with the pricing: markets see a hike as plausible but not the base case, stopping well short of a full 4%-plus scenario.
- The 75% probability above 3.75% suggests the market is pricing roughly one additional hike from the current hold, not the multi-hike cycle Warsh's language could imply.
- A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) shows nearly identical distribution, 95% above 3.50% but only 6% above 4.0%, reinforcing the single-hike consensus read.
- Markets lean toward a Fed hike by next meeting Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts the next Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range, with 54% above 3.75% but only 17% above 4.0%.
- Fed officials' hike signal is broadly consistent with this pricing: markets lean hawkish but stop well short of pricing a full hike as certain.
- A companion Kalshi ladder for the current bound (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) prices the rate firmly at 3.50-3.75%, implying the market sees the next move, not the current one, as the hike risk.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; any July-hold confirmation would collapse the 3.75%+ tail sharply.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
"slug": "kxfed-26dec",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, December 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"federal-reserve",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 73247,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}