Federal funds rate upper bound, December 2026 meeting [ resolves 2026-12-16 (134D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-12-16 | 98.0% | — | $16K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-12-16 | 98.0% | — | $7.7K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-12-16 | 98.0% | — | $11K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-12-16 | 86.0% | — | $20K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-12-16 | 68.0% | $204 | $15K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-12-16 | 31.0% | $130 | $3.1K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-12-16 | 6.0% | — | $407 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $13 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-12-16 | 2.0% | $0 | $13 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $11 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $9 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Federal Reserve Board of Governors committed source Federal Reserve's official website from rules text Federal Reserve statement from rules text
recent wire items
- Fed funds upper bound after next meeting seen near 4.0-4.25 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts the post-meeting Fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 80% above 4.0%, but only 15% above 4.25%.
- Warsh's deliberate silence is not being treated as hawkish by the market: the 15% probability above 4.25% shows a hike beyond 4.25% is a long shot.
- The sharp drop from 80% at 4.0% to 15% at 4.25% implies the dominant scenario is a hold at 4.0-4.25%, not a step higher.
- The Polymarket emergency rate cut contract (CM-EVT-9J8QJ6ZDT4) sits at only 3%, confirming the market sees no tail risk in either extreme direction.
- Next Fed rate decision priced near 4.0 to 4.25 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the next Fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 83% above 4.0% but only 15% above 4.25%.
- Warsh declined to prejudge the upcoming meeting, but the prediction market pricing is consistent with a hold at or near current levels, not a hike.
- A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) shows 99% probability above 3.75%, collapsing to 10% above 4.0% for a different meeting horizon, suggesting markets see the current level as a ceiling.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; any intra-meeting emergency action would be an edge case that could shift pricing sharply.
- Fed funds upper bound seen near 4.0-4.25% long term Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the long-run federal funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range, with 83% above 4.0% but only 14% above 4.25%.
- Warsh's deliberate ambiguity on rate timing is consistent with a market that sees the cycle peak near 4.0-4.25%, not materially higher.
- A separate near-term Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) prices the upper bound firmly at 3.75-4.0%, with 99% above 3.75% but only 16% above 4.0%, suggesting the market sees one more hike before the long-run level.
- Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate announcements; the gap between the two ladders implies the market prices a single incremental hike to reach the longer-run ceiling.
- Fed funds above 4.25% stays a long shot after Warsh silence Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 91% above 4.0% but only 15% above 4.25%.
- Warsh gave no rate guidance, and the market is consistent with that ambiguity, a hike to 4.25% or above remains a distinct minority view despite hot CPI and PPI.
- The sharp probability cliff between 4.0% (91%) and 4.25% (15%) signals the market treats one more hike as the base but rules out an aggressive step higher.
- A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) prices the same upper-bound question even more conservatively, collapsing to 13% above 4.0%, suggesting some resolution-date disagreement across contracts.
- Fed funds upper bound seen at 4.0-4.25 percent after next meeting Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts the post-meeting federal funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 83% above 4.0%, only 14% above 4.25%.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no forward guidance, but the Kalshi distribution shows markets have already priced a move to 4.0-4.25%, independent of his posture.
- A companion Kalshi ladder on a subsequent meeting implies 3.75-4.0% as the central range: 99% above 3.75%, only 15% above 4.0%, suggesting a one-and-done hike is the base case.
- Resolution via the Federal Reserve's official rate announcement; the gap between the two ladders reveals the market is pricing one hike and then a pause, not a sustained tightening cycle.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
"slug": "kxfed-26dec",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, December 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"federal-reserve",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 73247,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}