CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? [ resolves 2026-12-09 (189D) ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 11 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ 2.75% 2026-12-09 85.0%
$4 $13K
A KXFED-26DEC-T2.75
≥ 3% 2026-12-09 73.0%
$2.8K
A KXFED-26DEC-T3.00
≥ 3.25% 2026-12-09 67.0%
$7.0K
A KXFED-26DEC-T3.25
≥ 3.5% 2026-12-09 65.0%
$13K
A KXFED-26DEC-T3.50
≥ 3.75% 2026-12-09 59.0%
$842
A KXFED-26DEC-T3.75
≥ 4% 2026-12-09 28.0%
$200
A KXFED-26DEC-T4.00
≥ 4.25% 2026-12-09 12.0%
$0 $233
A KXFED-26DEC-T4.25
≥ 4.5% 2026-12-09 5.0%
$25
A KXFED-26DEC-T4.50
≥ 4.75% 2026-12-09 10.0%
$32
A KXFED-26DEC-T4.75
≥ 5% 2026-12-09 2.0%
$5
A KXFED-26DEC-T5.00
≥ 5.25% 2026-12-09 11.0%
$56
A KXFED-26DEC-T5.25
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Federal Reserve Board of Governors link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 11 markets · share this text
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors"
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26dec/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26dec.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26dec")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-funds-rate",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "federal-reserve",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 11,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 37322,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →