Will the Fed funds rate be below 4.5% after the December 2026 Federal Reserve meeting? [ resolves 2026-12-16 (163D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-12-16 | 97.0% | — | $15K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-12-16 | 85.0% | — | $4.6K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-12-16 | 92.0% | — | $9.9K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-12-16 | 66.0% | — | $13K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-12-16 | 58.0% | $59 | $923 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-12-16 | 29.0% | — | $213 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-12-16 | 16.0% | $2 | $338 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-12-16 | 10.0% | $3 | $52 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-12-16 | 10.0% | — | $32 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-12-16 | 9.0% | $1 | $23 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $5 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve's official website from rules text · editorial
- Federal Reserve statement from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Fed funds upper bound consensus wavers near 3.75-4.0 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 94% above 3.50%, 60% above 3.75%, only 29% above 4.0%.
- TD Securities on-hold call aligns with the distribution's center of mass, but the 60% at-or-above 3.75% shows meaningful hike risk priced in.
- The 29% above 4.0% reflects a non-trivial tail for a hike beyond 3.75%, consistent with Warsh-era upside risk commentary circulating this week.
- A separate Kalshi ladder for an earlier meeting (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) shows 99% above 3.50% but only 6% above 3.75%, pointing to a later-dated hike as the market's preferred scenario.
- Rate hike consensus fractures around 3.75-4 percent horizon Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices this later-horizon Fed funds contract at 57% above 3.75% but only 29% above 4.00%, implying a contested 3.75-4.00% range.
- Fed official broad-based inflation warning is consistent with elevated uncertainty above 3.75%, but the market stops well short of pricing a decisive hike above 4.00%.
- Contrast with the June contract's 6% above 3.75%: the term structure shows markets are open to a later move but not an imminent one.
- Resolves via the Fed's official rate announcement for the relevant FOMC meeting date.
- Near-term Fed funds path anchors at 3.75-4.0 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the near-term Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range, with 57% above 3.75% but only 29% above 4.0%.
- A strong jobless claims print reinforces labor market resilience, consistent with the market holding the funds rate above current levels near-term.
- Longer-horizon ladders for the same rate level show sharply lower probabilities, with one ladder pricing only 4% above 3.75% at a later date, pointing to expected easing over time.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official policy decision; the specific settlement date on this contract determines which FOMC meeting applies.
- Fed funds upper bound wavers between 3.75 and 4 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the implied upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 55% above 3.75%, but only 34% above 4.0%.
- Fed minutes showing deep internal division are consistent with a market that cannot commit above 4.0%, leaving the modal outcome near 3.75-4.0%.
- A separate nearer-term Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) prices 99% above 3.50% for an earlier meeting, suggesting markets see near-term stability with divergence only at longer horizons.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; any interim hawkish surprise at a future FOMC could shift the distribution sharply above 4.0%.
- Fed funds upper bound consensus wavers near 3.75 to 4 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound near 3.75-4.00%, pricing 93% above 3.50% but only 29% above 4.00%.
- A 57,000 June payroll print, well below the 113,000 consensus, is consistent with the market clustering below 4.00% rather than pricing in further hikes.
- The 55% reading at the 3.75% strike and sharp drop to 29% at 4.00% signals the market sees 3.75% as the probable ceiling, not a floor.
- Companion Kalshi ladder CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 shows 99% above 3.50% but only 9% above 3.75%, implying a tighter consensus around 3.50-3.75% for a subsequent meeting, a steepening term structure.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
"slug": "kxfed-26dec",
"question": "Will the Fed funds rate be below 4.5% after the December 2026 Federal Reserve meeting?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"federal-reserve",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 44814,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}