Federal funds rate upper bound, June 2026 meeting [ resolved 2026-06-17 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-06-17 | 100.0% | $2 | $56K | A | KXFED-26JUN-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-06-17 | 100.0% | — | $7.3K | A | KXFED-26JUN-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-06-17 | 100.0% | $2.9K | $139K | A | KXFED-26JUN-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-06-17 | 100.0% | $11K | $179K | A | KXFED-26JUN-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | $638 | $19K | A | KXFED-26JUN-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | $50 | $1.0K | A | KXFED-26JUN-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | — | $124 | A | KXFED-26JUN-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | $33 | $147 | A | KXFED-26JUN-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | — | $22 | A | KXFED-26JUN-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | — | $20 | A | KXFED-26JUN-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | — | $13 | A | KXFED-26JUN-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jun 17, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Federal Reserve Board of Governors committed source Federal Reserve's official website from rules text Federal Reserve statement from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| YES | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (11 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- June Fed funds hold at 3.50-3.75 percent nears full pricing Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi pins the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, pricing 98% above 3.50% but only 1% above 3.75%.
- Universal analyst consensus for a hold is fully consistent with the Kalshi distribution; no daylight between punditry and market.
- The separate Kalshi cut-before-2027 contract sits at only 28%, signaling markets see the hold as persistent, not a one-meeting pause.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official statement; upper bound printed above 3.75% would be required for the high-strike legs to pay.
- Fed above 3.50 percent hardens to near-certainty on blowout jobs Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices the Fed funds upper bound remaining above 3.50% at the next FOMC meeting at 98%, essentially fully priced.
- The blowout jobs print is fully consistent with this near-certainty; any near-term rate cut has been priced out of this ladder entirely.
- The critical information is the sharp cliff: probability above 3.75% collapses to just 2%, meaning the market is holding rates steady rather than pricing a hike.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve; a surprise emergency cut or hike would be the only resolution scenarios that deviate from the 3.50-3.75% consensus.
- Rate hike narrative absorbed at 3.50-3.75 percent ceiling Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 98% above 3.50% but only 2% above 3.75%, market caps the likely upper bound at 3.75%.
- Media hike-pressure narrative is only partly endorsed: markets see a move to 3.50-3.75% as near-certain but reject pricing above 4.00% at just 1%.
- The Kalshi contract on a jumbo cut (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) sits at 10%, signaling the rate path is seen as flat-to-up, not down.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official announcement; the near-zero probability above 4.25% implies markets are not pricing a multi-hike cycle despite hawkish commentary.
- Fed funds upper bound anchors at 3.50-3.75 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 98% above 3.50% but only 2% above 3.75%, pinning the expected upper bound firmly in the 3.50-3.75% range.
- Hike talk in media contrasts with the market: the distribution shows near-zero probability of the upper bound reaching 3.75% or beyond.
- The market is absorbing hawkish headlines without pricing a hike; consensus treats current levels as the ceiling.
- Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official federal funds rate target announcement; the relevant settlement date is implicit in the contract question.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26jun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26jun |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26jun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50",
"slug": "kxfed-26jun",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, June 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"federal-reserve",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 402573,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}