Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? [ resolves 2027-03-17 (287D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0% | 2027-03-17 | 61.0% | $9 | $438 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T0.00 | ||
| ≥ 0.25% | 2027-03-17 | 64.0% | $10 | $501 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T0.25 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2027-03-17 | 77.0% | — | $320 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T0.50 | ||
| ≥ 0.75% | 2027-03-17 | 75.0% | $23 | $684 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T0.75 | ||
| ≥ 1% | 2027-03-17 | 89.0% | — | $1.1K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T1.00 | ||
| ≥ 1.25% | 2027-03-17 | 73.0% | $304 | $1.1K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T1.25 | ||
| ≥ 1.5% | 2027-03-17 | 86.0% | $1 | $699 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T1.50 | ||
| ≥ 1.75% | 2027-03-17 | 88.0% | $14 | $1.0K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T1.75 | ||
| ≥ 2% | 2027-03-17 | 90.0% | $208 | $2.9K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T2.00 | ||
| ≥ 2.25% | 2027-03-17 | 33.0% | $67 | $723 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T2.25 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2027-03-17 | 81.0% | $1 | $706 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T2.50 | ||
| ≥ 2.75% | 2027-03-17 | 73.0% | $7 | $1.2K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2027-03-17 | 80.0% | $1 | $1.2K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2027-03-17 | 94.0% | $61 | $4.0K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2027-03-17 | 90.0% | $20 | $1.6K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2027-03-17 | 50.0% | $14 | $934 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2027-03-17 | 14.0% | $15 | $356 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2027-03-17 | 1.0% | $1 | $22 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T4.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.00% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-27mar/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-27mar.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-27mar") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-V37TZKN222",
"slug": "kxfed-27mar",
"question": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19686,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}