Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July 2026? [ resolves 2026-07-29 (23D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike rates by 0bps | 2026-07-29 | 92.0% | $20K | $263K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…-H0 | ||
| Hike rates by 25bps | 2026-07-29 | 7.0% | $1.7K | $15K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H25 | ||
| Cut rates by 25bps | 2026-07-29 | 4.0% | $1.2K | $11K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C25 | ||
| Cut rates by >25bps | 2026-07-29 | 2.0% | $181 | $1.1K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C26 | ||
| Hike rates by >25bps | 2026-07-29 | 1.0% | $128 | $327 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" sources (1) · single authority
- Federal Reserve source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- Market discounts any >25bps Fed move at July 2026 meeting 1% · $14K 24h
- 1% price, an outsized July hike is treated as a near-impossibility by the market.
- $13K in 24h is 81% of all-time; tiny absolute size but extreme session concentration signals a resolution chase.
- With the July FOMC meeting imminent, traders are settling this tail-risk contract ahead of the decision.
- Kalshi contract resolves on the July 2026 meeting outcome; flow is cleanup, not new conviction.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfeddecision-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfeddecision-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfeddecision-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BHTHYWRLH7",
"slug": "kxfeddecision-26jul",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-policy",
"interest-rates",
"monetary-policy",
"2026",
"central-banking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 290078,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}