Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in October 2026? [ resolves 2026-10-28 (85D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike rates by 0bps | 2026-10-28 | 66.0% | $51 | $13K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…-H0 | ||
| Hike rates by 25bps | 2026-10-28 | 22.0% | $5 | $3.9K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H25 | ||
| Cut rates by 25bps | 2026-10-28 | 7.0% | $29 | $2.5K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C25 | ||
| Cut rates by >25bps | 2026-10-28 | 4.0% | $33 | $351 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C26 | ||
| Hike rates by >25bps | 2026-10-28 | 2.0% | $23 | $153 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" sources (1) · single authority
Federal Reserve committed source
recent wire items
- A 25bps Fed hike by October draws real money 34% · $261K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 25bps October hike at 34%, a credible tail risk, not a fringe outcome.
- 24h volume of $261K is 41% of all-time, the highest single-day share yet on this contract.
- Paired surge with the hold contract confirms traders are actively splitting exposure across both outcomes.
- Resolves on the October 2026 FOMC rate decision.
- Fed hold in October stays the heavy bet 64% · $476K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Fed pause at 64%, implying a hold is the clear base case but far from certain.
- 24h volume of $476K is 35% of all-time, fresh capital flooding in days before the October meeting.
- October FOMC is imminent; traders are locking in rate-path positions ahead of the decision.
- Resolves on the October 2026 Fed rate announcement.
- Heavy trading backs a Fed October hike at 63% 63% · $163K 24h
- 63% odds imply markets lean toward a 25bps October hike as the base case.
- Kalshi sees $163K in 24h, 31% of all-time volume in a single session.
- Fresh positioning ahead of Fed communications suggests traders are repricing rate-path risk now.
- Resolves on the FOMC October 2026 decision date.
- A Fed October pause sits at 37% as traders push back 37% · $112K 24h
- 37% odds on a 0bps October outcome put a pause firmly in minority territory versus a hike.
- $112K in 24h covers 30% of all-time volume on this contract in a single session.
- Paired with Spike 0's 63% hike odds, the two contracts reveal a market leaning decisively toward action.
- Resolves on the FOMC October 2026 rate decision.
- Heavy trading backs a Fed October hike at 2-in-3 odds 66% · $150K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 25bps October hike at 66%, market treats a move as the base case.
- $149.5K traded in 24h, equal to 28% of the contract's entire all-time volume.
- Fresh capital arriving weeks before the October meeting signals rate-path repricing is live.
- Resolves on the FOMC decision; any intervening CPI or jobs data will move this sharply.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfeddecision-26oct/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfeddecision-26oct |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfeddecision-26oct") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FPF77GZ320",
"slug": "kxfeddecision-26oct",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in October 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"2026",
"us-economy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 20387,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}