Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in January 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-27 (176D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike rates by 0bps | 2027-01-27 | 64.0% | $15 | $13K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…-H0 | ||
| Hike rates by 25bps | 2027-01-27 | 18.0% | $0 | $1.1K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H25 | ||
| Cut rates by 25bps | 2027-01-27 | 17.0% | — | $970 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C25 | ||
| Cut rates by >25bps | 2027-01-27 | 2.0% | — | $51 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C26 | ||
| Hike rates by >25bps | 2027-01-27 | 2.0% | — | $27 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" sources (1) · single authority
Federal Reserve committed source
recent wire items
- Odds of a January Fed hike hold at 25% 25% · $14K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 25bps January 2027 Fed hike at exactly 25%, a live tail risk, not consensus.
- 24h volume of $14K represents 46% of all-time activity, a sharp single-day acceleration.
- Fresh positioning likely triggered by inflation data or Fed communication shifting rate-path expectations.
- Contract resolves on the January 2027 FOMC decision.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfeddecision-27jan/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfeddecision-27jan |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfeddecision-27jan") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NPLFGMTJW3",
"slug": "kxfeddecision-27jan",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in January 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"central-banking",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14994,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}