Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July 2027? [ resolves 2027-07-28 (358D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike rates by 0bps | 2027-07-28 | 77.0% | $228 | $4.4K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…-H0 | ||
| Cut rates by 25bps | 2027-07-28 | 4.0% | — | $367 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C25 | ||
| Hike rates by 25bps | 2027-07-28 | 4.0% | — | $48 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H25 | ||
| Cut rates by >25bps | 2027-07-28 | 3.0% | — | $923 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C26 | ||
| Hike rates by >25bps | 2027-07-28 | 3.0% | — | $27 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on July 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" sources (1) · single authority
Federal Reserve committed source
recent wire items
- Fed hold in July 2027 stays the heavy favorite 76% · $41K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 76% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged at its July 2027 meeting, a strong consensus lean.
- 24h volume of $41.5K is 87% of all-time contract volume, near the entire lifetime of liquidity deployed in one session.
- Surge implies fresh macro positioning, likely driven by recent Fed communication or labor/inflation data reshaping the 2027 rate path.
- Contract resolves after the July 2027 FOMC decision.
- Fed pause bets hold firm through a volume surge 84% · $46K 24h
- Kalshi prices an 0bps July 2027 Fed hold at 84%, market treats a pause as the strong base case.
- $45K in 24h volume equals 87% of all-time flow, signaling near-exhaustive positioning in a single session.
- Surge arrives as rate-path debates sharpen into 2027; heavy one-sided flow suggests traders are locking in conviction rather than hedging.
- Resolves at the July 2027 FOMC decision.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfeddecision-27jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfeddecision-27jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfeddecision-27jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S64CMSWWK9",
"slug": "kxfeddecision-27jul",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"us-economics",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5810,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}