CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will someone be charged with a federal crime in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]

kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 42 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Raúl Castro 2027-01-01 99.4%
$21K
C KXFEDERALCHA…CAS
James Comey 2027-01-01 98.9%
$49K
C KXFEDERALCHA…COM
John Brennan 2027-01-01 44.0%
$50 $18K
C KXFEDERALCHA…BRE
Letitia James 2027-01-01 28.0%
$104 $15K
C KXFEDERALCHA…JAM
Jack Smith 2027-01-01 25.0%
$616 $15K
C KXFEDERALCHA…SMI
Ilhan Omar 2027-01-01 24.0%
$15 $27K
C KXFEDERALCHA…OMA
Anthony Fauci 2027-01-01 23.0%
$332 $17K
C KXFEDERALCHA…FAU
Peter Strzok 2027-01-01 20.0%
$1.8K
C KXFEDERALCHA…STR
James Clapper 2027-01-01 19.0%
$3.5K
C KXFEDERALCHA…CLA
Gavin Newsom 2027-01-01 18.0%
$2 $2.0K
C KXFEDERALCHA…NEW
Lisa Cook 2027-01-01 16.0%
$16 $3.4K
C KXFEDERALCHA…COO
Fani Willis 2027-01-01 16.0%
$1.5K
C KXFEDERALCHA…WIL
Miles Taylor 2027-01-01 16.0%
$1 $328
C KXFEDERALCHA…TAY
Alvin Bragg 2027-01-01 15.0%
$0 $2.1K
C KXFEDERALCHA…BRA
Jennifer Siebel Newsom 2027-01-01 15.0%
$928
C KXFEDERALCHA…NEW
Cassidy Hutchinson 2027-01-01 14.0%
$574
C KXFEDERALCHA…HUT
Chris Krebs 2027-01-01 13.0%
$691
C KXFEDERALCHA…KRE
Gustavo Petro 2027-01-01 13.0%
$1.3K
C KXFEDERALCHA…PET
E. Jean Carroll 2027-01-01 13.0%
$1.6K
C KXFEDERALCHA…CAR
Lisa Monaco 2027-01-01 13.0%
$214
C KXFEDERALCHA…MON
Joe Kent 2027-01-01 12.0%
$1 $379
C KXFEDERALCHA…KEN
Adam Schiff 2027-01-01 11.0%
$3.2K
C KXFEDERALCHA…SCH
Christopher Wray 2027-01-01 11.0%
$2 $741
C KXFEDERALCHA…WRA
Tim Walz 2027-01-01 11.0%
$28K
C KXFEDERALCHA…WAL
Keith Ellison 2027-01-01 10.0%
$1.7K
C KXFEDERALCHA…ELL
Reid Hoffman 2027-01-01 10.0%
$356
C KXFEDERALCHA…HOF
Jacob Frey 2027-01-01 9.8%
$1.1K
C KXFEDERALCHA…FRE
Mark Milley 2027-01-01 9.1%
$629
C KXFEDERALCHA…MIL
Bill Clinton 2027-01-01 8.4%
$4.4K
C KXFEDERALCHA…CLI
Mark Kelly 2027-01-01 7.3%
$0 $1.1K
C KXFEDERALCHA…KEL
Hillary Clinton 2027-01-01 7.0%
$2.8K
C KXFEDERALCHA…CLI
Jerome Powell 2027-01-01 7.0%
$1.6K
C KXFEDERALCHA…POW
Tucker Carlson 2027-01-01 7.0%
$516
C KXFEDERALCHA…CAR
Hunter Biden 2027-01-01 5.7%
$776
C KXFEDERALCHA…BID
Elissa Slotkin 2027-01-01 5.5%
$416
C KXFEDERALCHA…SLO
Liz Cheney 2027-01-01 5.2%
$471
C KXFEDERALCHA…CHE
Barack Obama 2027-01-01 5.0%
$4.3K
C KXFEDERALCHA…OBA
George Soros 2027-01-01 5.0%
$1 $199
C KXFEDERALCHA…SOR
Joe Biden 2027-01-01 4.5%
$876
C KXFEDERALCHA…BID
Andrew Weissmann 2027-01-01 4.0%
$128
C KXFEDERALCHA…WEI
Chris Christie 2027-01-01 3.7%
$191
C KXFEDERALCHA…CHR
Pam Bondi 2027-01-01 2.0%
$1 $420
C KXFEDERALCHA…BON
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Bloomberg not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 42 markets · share this text
If Letitia James has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. For groups of individuals, charges against any member of the specified group trigger the criterion.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bloomberg"
sources (17)
Bloomberg venue-listed ABC venue-listed The Information venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed CBS venue-listed NBC venue-listed NPR venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Axios venue-listed BBC venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed CNN venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Semafor venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed the New York Times venue-listed Politico venue-listed
recent wire items
  • 2026-08-13T09:08:38+00:00 volume-spike
    Fauci criminal charge odds sit at the line on fresh volume 49% · $32K 24h
    • Kalshi prices a Fauci criminal charge before Jan 1, 2027 at 49%, effectively no market consensus.
    • 30% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours, suggesting renewed attention tied to DOJ or congressional activity.
    • A dead-even price means the market is genuinely split, unresolved political and legal signals are driving uncertainty.
    • Resolves YES if any criminal charge is filed against Fauci before Jan 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfederalcharge-27jan01/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfederalcharge-27jan01
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxfederalcharge-27jan01")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-69K59CM028",
  "slug": "kxfederalcharge-27jan01",
  "question": "Will someone be charged with a federal crime in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "federal-charges",
    "2026-us-politics",
    "criminal-indictment",
    "political-accountability",
    "legal-proceedings"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 42,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 238217,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 80,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Bloomberg",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NPR",
      "url": "https://www.npr.org",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "BBC",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://semafor.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →