Will someone be charged with a federal crime in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 42 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Castro | 2027-01-01 | 99.4% | — | $21K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CAS | ||
| James Comey | 2027-01-01 | 98.9% | — | $49K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…COM | ||
| John Brennan | 2027-01-01 | 44.0% | $50 | $18K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…BRE | ||
| Letitia James | 2027-01-01 | 28.0% | $104 | $15K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…JAM | ||
| Jack Smith | 2027-01-01 | 25.0% | $616 | $15K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…SMI | ||
| Ilhan Omar | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | $15 | $27K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…OMA | ||
| Anthony Fauci | 2027-01-01 | 23.0% | $332 | $17K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…FAU | ||
| Peter Strzok | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | — | $1.8K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…STR | ||
| James Clapper | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | — | $3.5K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CLA | ||
| Gavin Newsom | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | $2 | $2.0K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…NEW | ||
| Lisa Cook | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | $16 | $3.4K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…COO | ||
| Fani Willis | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | — | $1.5K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…WIL | ||
| Miles Taylor | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | $1 | $328 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…TAY | ||
| Alvin Bragg | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | $0 | $2.1K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…BRA | ||
| Jennifer Siebel Newsom | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $928 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…NEW | ||
| Cassidy Hutchinson | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $574 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…HUT | ||
| Chris Krebs | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $691 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…KRE | ||
| Gustavo Petro | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $1.3K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…PET | ||
| E. Jean Carroll | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $1.6K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CAR | ||
| Lisa Monaco | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $214 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…MON | ||
| Joe Kent | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $1 | $379 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…KEN | ||
| Adam Schiff | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $3.2K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…SCH | ||
| Christopher Wray | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $2 | $741 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…WRA | ||
| Tim Walz | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $28K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…WAL | ||
| Keith Ellison | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $1.7K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…ELL | ||
| Reid Hoffman | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $356 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…HOF | ||
| Jacob Frey | 2027-01-01 | 9.8% | — | $1.1K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…FRE | ||
| Mark Milley | 2027-01-01 | 9.1% | — | $629 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…MIL | ||
| Bill Clinton | 2027-01-01 | 8.4% | — | $4.4K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CLI | ||
| Mark Kelly | 2027-01-01 | 7.3% | $0 | $1.1K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…KEL | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $2.8K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CLI | ||
| Jerome Powell | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $1.6K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…POW | ||
| Tucker Carlson | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $516 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CAR | ||
| Hunter Biden | 2027-01-01 | 5.7% | — | $776 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…BID | ||
| Elissa Slotkin | 2027-01-01 | 5.5% | — | $416 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…SLO | ||
| Liz Cheney | 2027-01-01 | 5.2% | — | $471 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CHE | ||
| Barack Obama | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $4.3K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…OBA | ||
| George Soros | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $1 | $199 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…SOR | ||
| Joe Biden | 2027-01-01 | 4.5% | — | $876 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…BID | ||
| Andrew Weissmann | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $128 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…WEI | ||
| Chris Christie | 2027-01-01 | 3.7% | — | $191 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CHR | ||
| Pam Bondi | 2027-01-01 | 2.0% | $1 | $420 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…BON |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bloomberg | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Letitia James has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion.
Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. For groups of individuals, charges against any member of the specified group trigger the criterion.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bloomberg" sources (17)
Bloomberg venue-listed ABC venue-listed The Information venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed CBS venue-listed NBC venue-listed NPR venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Axios venue-listed BBC venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed CNN venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Semafor venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed the New York Times venue-listed Politico venue-listed
recent wire items
- Fauci criminal charge odds sit at the line on fresh volume 49% · $32K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Fauci criminal charge before Jan 1, 2027 at 49%, effectively no market consensus.
- 30% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours, suggesting renewed attention tied to DOJ or congressional activity.
- A dead-even price means the market is genuinely split, unresolved political and legal signals are driving uncertainty.
- Resolves YES if any criminal charge is filed against Fauci before Jan 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfederalcharge-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfederalcharge-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfederalcharge-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-69K59CM028",
"slug": "kxfederalcharge-27jan01",
"question": "Will someone be charged with a federal crime in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"federal-charges",
"2026-us-politics",
"criminal-indictment",
"political-accountability",
"legal-proceedings"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 42,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 238217,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Bloomberg",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NPR",
"url": "https://www.npr.org",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}