Who will chair the June FOMC meeting? [ resolved 2026-06-17 ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Warsh | 2026-06-17 | 100.0% | $4 | $78K | A | KXFEDLEADJUN…WAR | ||
| Jerome Powell | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | — | $80 | A | KXFEDLEADJUN…POW | ||
| Philip Jefferson | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | — | $10 | A | KXFEDLEADJUN…JEF | ||
| John Williams | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | — | $3 | A | KXFEDLEADJUN…WIL | ||
| Christopher Waller | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | — | $2 | A | KXFEDLEADJUN…WAL | ||
| Judy Shelton | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | — | $21 | A | KXFEDLEADJUN…SHE | ||
| Michelle Bowman | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | — | $8 | A | KXFEDLEADJUN…BOW | ||
| Stephen Miran | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | — | $12 | A | KXFEDLEADJUN…MIR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official organizational website where role is housed | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Kevin Warsh officially holds the position of Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following:
- Kevin Warsh has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity)
- Kevin Warsh is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity)
- Kevin Warsh is actively serving as Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)
The following do **NOT** constitute "officially holding" the role:
- Nominated, announced, or designated as Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) but appointment not yet effective
- Appointed with an effective date *after* Jun 17, 2026
- Previously served as Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Jun 17, 2026
- Serving as Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity
- Named as successor or heir apparent to Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) but not yet appointed
- Holding a different role with oversight of Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) but not the specified position itself
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official organizational website where role is housed" sources (21) · single authority
official organizational website where role is housed committed source or company responsible for role venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed USAJobs.gov venue-listed ABC venue-listed person venue-listed NBC venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed agency venue-listed Axios venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed the Federal Register venue-listed CNN venue-listed official government website venue-listed Fox News venue-listed Politico venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed CBS venue-listed Reuters venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Kevin Warsh be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| NO | Will Jerome Powell be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Philip Jefferson be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will John Williams be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Christopher Waller be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Judy Shelton be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Michelle Bowman be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Stephen Miran be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfedleadjune-26jun17/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfedleadjune-26jun17 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfedleadjune-26jun17") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S3FTHFXP80",
"slug": "kxfedleadjune-26jun17",
"question": "Who will chair the June FOMC meeting?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"fomc-leadership",
"federal-reserve-chair",
"us-monetary-policy",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 77932,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "official organizational website where role is housed",
"resolution_source_url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official organizational website where role is housed",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official organizational website where role is housed",
"url": "http://www.thjodminjasafn.is",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "or company responsible for role",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "USAJobs.gov",
"url": "http://www.usajobs.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "person",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "agency",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Federal Register",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government website",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}