Will the Federal Reserve hold an emergency meeting in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-02 (180D) ]
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-02 | 9.6% | — | $14K | A | KXFEDMEET-27-JAN01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Open market Committee has an unscheduled meeting before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" sources (2) · single authority
- Federal Reserve source of record venue-listed
- Federal Open Market Committee from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Fed emergency meeting odds hold low despite Warsh guidance vacuum Kalshi 10%
- The Kalshi contract prices a 10% probability of a Federal Reserve emergency meeting in 2026, resolving via Federal Reserve announcement.
- Warsh's deliberate communication blackout raises the theoretical need for emergency action, but at 10% the market is not treating the guidance vacuum as a crisis trigger.
- An emergency meeting would typically signal either a financial accident or a sharp macro deterioration, neither is priced as a base case in current labor or rate markets.
- The Fed funds ladder showing 95% above 3.50% and near-zero above 4.25% implies markets see a stable rate path, which is structurally inconsistent with emergency-meeting scenarios.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfedmeet-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfedmeet-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfedmeet-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5Z1MKFCSL8",
"slug": "kxfedmeet-27",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve hold an emergency meeting in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"emergency-meeting",
"us-economics",
"crisis-response"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13575,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Open Market Committee",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}