Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic Party? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?

kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 7 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028	2027-01-01	48.0%	$19	$659	B	`KXFETTERMANS…-28`
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2027	2027-01-01	41.0%	—	$556	B	`KXFETTERMANS…G01`
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Apr 1, 2027	2027-01-01	37.0%	—	$344	B	`KXFETTERMANS…R01`
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Nov 3, 2026	2027-01-01	11.0%	—	$339	B	`KXFETTERMANS…V03`
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2026	2027-01-01	7.0%	$8	$1.7K	B	`KXFETTERMANS…G01`
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jul 1, 2026	2027-01-01	3.0%	$0	$661	B	`KXFETTERMANS…L01`
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026	2027-01-01	2.0%	—	$828	B	`KXFETTERMANS…N01`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Fox News	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 7 markets · share this text

If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fox News"

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfettermanswitch-26may/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfettermanswitch-26may.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxfettermanswitch-26may")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JPPHPC5D02",
  "slug": "kxfettermanswitch-26may",
  "question": "Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic Party?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "democratic-party",
    "party-switching",
    "fetterman",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 7,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 5085,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 72,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Fox News",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →