Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic Party? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2028-01 ]
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | 2026-06-01 | 2.0% | — | $828 | C | KXFETTERMANS…N01 | ||
| Jul 1, 2026 | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $661 | C | KXFETTERMANS…L01 | ||
| Aug 1, 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 7.0% | — | $1.7K | C | KXFETTERMANS…G01 | ||
| Nov 3, 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 13.0% | — | $434 | C | KXFETTERMANS…V03 | ||
| Apr 1, 2027 | 2027-04-01 | 30.0% | $18 | $317 | C | KXFETTERMANS…R01 | ||
| Aug 1, 2027 | 2027-08-01 | 33.0% | $15 | $827 | C | KXFETTERMANS…G01 | ||
| Jan 1, 2028 | 2028-01-01 | 48.0% | — | $703 | C | KXFETTERMANS…-28 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fox News | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fox News" sources (14)
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 2% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfettermanswitch-26may/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfettermanswitch-26may |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfettermanswitch-26may") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JPPHPC5D02",
"slug": "kxfettermanswitch-26may",
"question": "Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic Party?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"democratic-party",
"party-switching",
"fetterman",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5467,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Fox News",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}