Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Wang · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 89.9% | $252 | $22K | C | KXFIELDS-26-HWAN | ||
| Jacob Tsimerman · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 83.5% | $1.1K | $9.7K | C | KXFIELDS-26-JTSI | ||
| John Pardon · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 74.6% | — | $2.9K | C | KXFIELDS-26-JPAR | ||
| Yu Deng · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 66.6% | $1.1K | $11K | C | KXFIELDS-26-YDEN | ||
| Jack Thorne · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 30.5% | $33 | $1.9K | C | KXFIELDS-26-JTHO | ||
| Aleksandr Logunov · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 29.0% | — | $864 | C | KXFIELDS-26-ALOG | ||
| Sam Raskin · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 24.8% | — | $231 | C | KXFIELDS-26-SRAS | ||
| Alexander Efimov · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 11.5% | — | $87 | C | KXFIELDS-26-AEFI | ||
| Julian Sahasrabudhe · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $133 | C | KXFIELDS-26-JSAH | ||
| Will Sawin · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 2.5% | — | $12 | C | KXFIELDS-26-WSAW |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fox News | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Hong Wang wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fox News" sources (14)
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfields-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfields-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfields-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-61DZDC02K1",
"slug": "kxfields-26",
"question": "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"fields-medal",
"mathematics",
"award-prediction",
"2026",
"individual-achievement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 48545,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Fox News",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}