Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Wang · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 85.0% | $637 | $19K | A | KXFIELDS-26-HWAN | ||
| John Pardon · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 82.8% | $1.0K | $2.0K | A | KXFIELDS-26-JPAR | ||
| Jacob Tsimerman · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 82.7% | $99 | $7.7K | A | KXFIELDS-26-JTSI | ||
| Jack Thorne · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 53.7% | — | $2.4K | A | KXFIELDS-26-JTHO | ||
| Yu Deng · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 46.9% | $415 | $6.1K | A | KXFIELDS-26-YDEN | ||
| Aleksandr Logunov · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 25.2% | — | $750 | A | KXFIELDS-26-ALOG | ||
| Sam Raskin · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 23.5% | $3 | $200 | A | KXFIELDS-26-SRAS | ||
| Will Sawin · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 16.5% | — | $72 | A | KXFIELDS-26-WSAW | ||
| Alexander Efimov · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 12.4% | — | $93 | A | KXFIELDS-26-AEFI | ||
| Julian Sahasrabudhe · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $132 | A | KXFIELDS-26-JSAH |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fox News | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fox News" No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfields-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfields-26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfields-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-61DZDC02K1",
"slug": "kxfields-26",
"question": "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"fields-medal",
"mathematics",
"award-prediction",
"2026",
"individual-achievement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 38599,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 85,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Fox News",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}