CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year? [ resolved 2026-07-24 ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 24 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Fausto 2026-07-24 100.0%
$13 $38K
A KXFIRSTHURRI…FAU
Amanda 2026-07-24 0.0%
$274
A KXFIRSTHURRI…AMA
Boris 2026-07-24 0.0%
$57
A KXFIRSTHURRI…BOR
Cristina 2026-07-24 0.0%
$59
A KXFIRSTHURRI…CRI
Douglas 2026-07-24 0.0%
$70
A KXFIRSTHURRI…DOU
Elida 2026-07-24 0.0%
$601
A KXFIRSTHURRI…ELI
Genevieve 2026-07-24 0.0%
$200
A KXFIRSTHURRI…GEN
Hernan 2026-07-24 0.0%
$154
A KXFIRSTHURRI…HER
Iselle 2026-07-24 0.0%
$183
A KXFIRSTHURRI…ISE
Julio 2026-07-24 0.0%
$23
A KXFIRSTHURRI…JUL
Karina 2026-07-24 0.0%
$33
A KXFIRSTHURRI…KAR
Lowell 2026-07-24 0.0%
$23
A KXFIRSTHURRI…LOW
Marie 2026-07-24 0.0%
$21
A KXFIRSTHURRI…MAR
Norbert 2026-07-24 0.0%
$21
A KXFIRSTHURRI…NOR
Odalys 2026-07-24 0.0%
$35
A KXFIRSTHURRI…ODA
Polo 2026-07-24 0.0%
$25
A KXFIRSTHURRI…POL
Rachel 2026-07-24 0.0%
$2
A KXFIRSTHURRI…RAC
Simon 2026-07-24 0.0%
$6
A KXFIRSTHURRI…SIM
Trudy 2026-07-24 0.0%
A KXFIRSTHURRI…TRU
Vance 2026-07-24 0.0%
A KXFIRSTHURRI…VAN
Winnie 2026-07-24 0.0%
$1
A KXFIRSTHURRI…WIN
Xavier 2026-07-24 0.0%
$13
A KXFIRSTHURRI…XAV
Yolanda 2026-07-24 0.0%
A KXFIRSTHURRI…YOL
Zeke 2026-07-24 0.0%
A KXFIRSTHURRI…ZEK
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff National Weather Service not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 24 markets · share this text
If a storm named Amanda is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then all markets resolve to No.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Weather Service"
sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Will Amanda be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Boris be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Cristina be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Douglas be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elida be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
YES Will Fausto be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 100%
NO Will Genevieve be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Hernan be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Iselle be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Julio be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Karina be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Lowell be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Marie be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Norbert be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Odalys be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Polo be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Rachel be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Simon be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Trudy be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Vance be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Winnie be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Xavier be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Yolanda be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Zeke be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026? kalshi 2026-07-24 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (24 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01epac/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01epac
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxfirsthurricane-26dec01epac")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-R4559XBF18",
  "slug": "kxfirsthurricane-26dec01epac",
  "question": "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year?",
  "category": "climate",
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "eastern-pacific-hurricane",
    "weather-naming",
    "first-hurricane-2026",
    "atlantic-basin",
    "seasonal-weather"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 24,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 40135,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "National Weather Service",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.weather.gov",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "National Weather Service",
      "url": "https://www.weather.gov",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
      "url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →