What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year? [ resolves 2026-12-01 (131D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fausto | 2026-12-01 | 99.0% | $13 | $38K | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…FAU | ||
| Amanda | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $274 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…AMA | ||
| Boris | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $57 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…BOR | ||
| Cristina | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $59 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…CRI | ||
| Douglas | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $70 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…DOU | ||
| Elida | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $601 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…ELI | ||
| Genevieve | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $200 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…GEN | ||
| Hernan | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $154 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…HER | ||
| Iselle | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $183 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…ISE | ||
| Julio | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $23 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…JUL | ||
| Karina | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $33 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…KAR | ||
| Lowell | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $23 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…LOW | ||
| Marie | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $21 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…MAR | ||
| Norbert | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $21 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…NOR | ||
| Odalys | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $35 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…ODA | ||
| Polo | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $25 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…POL | ||
| Rachel | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $2 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…RAC | ||
| Simon | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $6 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…SIM | ||
| Winnie | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…WIN | ||
| Xavier | 2026-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $13 | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…XAV | ||
| Trudy | 2026-12-01 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…TRU | ||
| Vance | 2026-12-01 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…VAN | ||
| Yolanda | 2026-12-01 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…YOL | ||
| Zeke | 2026-12-01 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXFIRSTHURRI…ZEK |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | National Weather Service | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a storm named Amanda is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then all markets resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Weather Service" sources (2) · single authority
- National Weather Service venue-listed
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01epac/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfirsthurricane-26dec01epac |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfirsthurricane-26dec01epac") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-R4559XBF18",
"slug": "kxfirsthurricane-26dec01epac",
"question": "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"eastern-pacific-hurricane",
"weather-naming",
"first-hurricane-2026",
"atlantic-basin",
"seasonal-weather"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 40135,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "National Weather Service",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.weather.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "National Weather Service",
"url": "https://www.weather.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}