Will the next FISA authorization last longer than six years? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 days | 2027-01-01 | 60.0% | — | $2.5K | A | KXFISALENGTH…90D | ||
| 30 days | 2027-01-01 | 57.0% | — | $4.5K | A | KXFISALENGTH…30D | ||
| 1 year | 2027-01-01 | 45.0% | — | $2.4K | A | KXFISALENGTH…A1Y | ||
| 2 years | 2027-01-01 | 42.0% | — | $2.5K | A | KXFISALENGTH…A2Y | ||
| 5 years | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $24 | A | KXFISALENGTH…A5Y |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 30 days has become law after Issuance and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House" sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- White House source of record venue-listed
- Library of Congress venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfisalength-26may/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfisalength-26may |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfisalength-26may") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Z6CFH1Z2J4",
"slug": "kxfisalength-26may",
"question": "Will the next FISA authorization last longer than six years?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"fisa-authorization",
"us-surveillance-law",
"congress-legislation",
"policy-duration",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11918,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "White House",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://congress.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}