Will the Republican nominee for Florida's 22nd congressional district be determined by 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (103D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carbonara | 2026-11-03 | 89.0% | $182 | $22K | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…CAR | ||
| Belinda Kaiser | 2026-11-03 | 6.0% | $6 | $902 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…KAI | ||
| David Burck | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | $1 | $56 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…BUR | ||
| Casey Askar | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | $1 | $35 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…ASK | ||
| Steve Avila | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $19 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…AVI | ||
| Lateresa Jones | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $20 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…JON | ||
| Herbie Wertheim | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $19 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…WER | ||
| Deborah Adeimy | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $19 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…ADE | ||
| Paola Branda | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $18 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…BRA | ||
| Anna Medvedeva | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $20 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…MED | ||
| Antonio Srado | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $19 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…SRA | ||
| Chris Collins | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $19 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…COL | ||
| Richard Evans | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | $0 | $3 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…EVA | ||
| Terri Hasdorff | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | $1 | $3 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…HAS | ||
| Michael Thompson | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | $1 | $9 | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…THO | ||
| Pia Dandiya | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXFLPRIMARY-…DAN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Steve Avila wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 FL-22 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
- Republican Party source of record venue-listed
- Democratic Party venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxflprimary-22r26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxflprimary-22r26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxflprimary-22r26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HTQ9V1FDP4",
"slug": "kxflprimary-22r26",
"question": "Will the Republican nominee for Florida's 22nd congressional district be determined by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"florida-politics",
"republican-primary",
"2027-election",
"congressional-race",
"nominee-selection"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 23135,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}