Will the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average drop below 5.75% in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-07 (156D) ]
Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 5.75% | 2027-01-07 | 13.0% | $65 | $5.2K | A | KXFM30YMTG-2….75 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If any Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) release, between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average is below 5.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation committed source Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) from rules text
recent wire items
- Mortgage rate below 5.75 percent in 2026 stays a long shot Kalshi 2%
- Kalshi contract puts only 2% odds on the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average dropping below 5.75% in 2026.
- Darkening housing forecasts from Fannie Mae and Goldman Sachs are consistent with this near-zero probability, the market sees no relief on mortgage rates this year.
- With the Fed ladder pricing a December hike to above 4.0%, rate relief sufficient to push mortgages below 5.75% in 2026 appears structurally blocked.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation as named source; note the resolution source listed is atypical for a mortgage rate contract.
- Thirty-year mortgage below 5.75 percent in 2026 stays a long shot Kalshi 6%
- The Kalshi prediction market puts only 6% odds on the 30-year fixed mortgage average dropping below 5.75% in 2026.
- The weekly outlook's 'still running hot' framing, with the Fed now hiking to 3.75-4.00%, is consistent with the market's near-certainty that mortgage rates stay elevated.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3) asks whether the 30-year mortgage reaches 7% or higher this year, though no price is available for direct cross-reference.
- Resolution is via the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey weekly average, sourced through the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation feed as listed.
- Mortgage rates below 5.75% in 2026 stays a long shot Kalshi 2%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices only a 2% chance the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average falls below 5.75% in 2026.
- With the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.44%, the bond market selloff is fully consistent with mortgage rates staying elevated, reinforcing the near-zero Kalshi probability.
- A sub-5.75% mortgage rate requires a dramatic and rapid reversal in Treasury yields, which current Fed posture and inflation data make implausible.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; any upside labor surprise would further pressure yields and reduce the already-thin probability.
- Freddie Mac 30-year rate below 5.75% in 2026 stays a long shot Kalshi 2%
- Kalshi puts only 2% odds on the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed average falling below 5.75% at any point in 2026.
- The CBS News report of a 30-year Treasury at 5.44% is consistent with the Kalshi contract's near-zero probability of a mortgage rate relief scenario, the market agrees with the alarm.
- A 10-year yield environment above 5% historically prevents the 30-year mortgage from dipping to the 5.75% area; prediction market pricing reflects that structural constraint.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, note this is an unusual source for a mortgage rate question and may introduce ambiguity around the exact settlement mechanism.
- Mortgage rate below 5.75% in 2026 stays a long shot at 10% Kalshi 10%
- Kalshi prices only a 10% chance the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average drops below 5.75% at any point in 2026.
- News that mortgage rates just took their biggest single jump in over a year pushes further against a sub-5.75% print this year, keeping the market consistent with the bearish pricing.
- The Fed's rate hike and signal of another potential increase make near-term mortgage relief unlikely; the 10% price reflects that structural ceiling.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation; the Freddie Mac weekly survey would need a sustained reversal before year-end to move this toward YES.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfm30ymtg-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfm30ymtg-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfm30ymtg-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2JCJ075QD1",
"slug": "kxfm30ymtg-26dec31",
"question": "Will the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average drop below 5.75% in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"freddie-mac-mortgage-rates",
"us-mortgage-market",
"interest-rates-2026",
"economic-indicators",
"housing-finance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5169,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}