Will the 2027 French Presidential Election be held? [ resolves 2027-06-30 (330D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 22 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 2027-06-30 | 87.0% | — | $5 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…MEL | ||
| Édouard Philippe | 2027-06-30 | 87.0% | — | $469 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…PHI | ||
| Marine Le Pen | 2027-06-30 | 86.0% | — | $35 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…LEP | ||
| Fabien Roussel | 2027-06-30 | 79.0% | — | $302 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…ROU | ||
| Nathalie Arthaud | 2027-06-30 | 77.0% | — | $7 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…ART | ||
| Bruno Retailleau | 2027-06-30 | 77.0% | — | $929 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…RET | ||
| Éric Zemmour | 2027-06-30 | 65.0% | $16 | $624 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…ZEM | ||
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2027-06-30 | 64.0% | — | $5 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…DUP | ||
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 2027-06-30 | 58.0% | $19 | $611 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…GLU | ||
| Gérald Darmanin | 2027-06-30 | 50.0% | — | $0 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…DAR | ||
| Dominique de Villepin | 2027-06-30 | 42.0% | — | $297 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…VIL | ||
| Gabriel Attal | 2027-06-30 | 39.0% | — | $1.2K | C | KXFRPRESBALL…ATT | ||
| François Hollande | 2027-06-30 | 32.0% | — | $519 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…HOL | ||
| François Ruffin | 2027-06-30 | 30.0% | — | $7 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…RUF | ||
| Marine Tondelier | 2027-06-30 | 27.0% | $3 | $7 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…TON | ||
| François Asselineau | 2027-06-30 | 13.0% | — | $2 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…ASS | ||
| Olivier Faure | 2027-06-30 | 11.0% | — | $43 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…FAU | ||
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 2027-06-30 | 11.0% | — | $65 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…CAZ | ||
| Jordan Bardella | 2027-06-30 | 10.0% | $4 | $22 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…BAR | ||
| Clémentine Autain | 2027-06-30 | 8.0% | — | $0 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…AUT | ||
| Jérôme Guedj | 2027-06-30 | 6.0% | — | $0 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…GUE | ||
| Karim Bouamrane | 2027-06-30 | 6.0% | — | $0 | C | KXFRPRESBALL…BOU |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | NBC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Jean-Luc Mélenchon is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "NBC" sources (19)
- NBC venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- relevant state Secretary of State or chief election official venue-listed
- official state election websites venue-listed
- relevant state board of elections venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfrpresballot-27jun30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfrpresballot-27jun30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfrpresballot-27jun30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T5LBF3S996",
"slug": "kxfrpresballot-27jun30",
"question": "Will the 2027 French Presidential Election be held?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"2027-french-election",
"candidate-eligibility",
"france-politics",
"ballot-access",
"electoral-mechanism"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 22,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5161,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "NBC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant state Secretary of State or chief election official",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official state election websites",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant state board of elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}