Will a Democrat win the GA-12 general election by 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceretta Smith | 2026-11-03 | 90.1% | — | $9.5K | A | KXGAPRIMARY-…SMI | ||
| Traci George | 2026-11-03 | 17.0% | — | $159 | A | KXGAPRIMARY-…GEO | ||
| Tracell Peace-Nichols | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $4 | A | KXGAPRIMARY-…PEA | ||
| Chris Stephens | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $3 | A | KXGAPRIMARY-…STE | ||
| Brianna Woodson | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $2 | A | KXGAPRIMARY-…WOO |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Traci George wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 GA-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
- Republican Party venue-listed
- Democratic Party source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Tracell Peace-Nichols be the Democratic nominee for GA-12? | kalshi | 2026-11-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Chris Stephens be the Democratic nominee for GA-12? | kalshi | 2026-11-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Brianna Woodson be the Democratic nominee for GA-12? | kalshi | 2026-11-03 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgaprimary-12d26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgaprimary-12d26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgaprimary-12d26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GM7GCL3501",
"slug": "kxgaprimary-12d26",
"question": "Will a Democrat win the GA-12 general election by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"georgia-politics",
"democratic-primary",
"us-house-2026",
"nominee-selection",
"electoral-process"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9632,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}