Real GDP quarterly growth, Q2 2026 [ resolves 2026-10-29 (115D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0% | 2026-10-29 | 96.0% | $103 | $1.3K | A | KXGDP-26JUL30-T0.0 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2026-10-29 | 96.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXGDP-26JUL30-T0.5 | ||
| ≥ 1% | 2026-10-29 | 85.0% | $56 | $15K | A | KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.0 | ||
| ≥ 1.5% | 2026-10-29 | 82.0% | $98 | $7.4K | A | KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.5 | ||
| ≥ 2% | 2026-10-29 | 76.0% | $44 | $9.3K | A | KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.0 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2026-10-29 | 47.0% | $7 | $16K | A | KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.5 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-10-29 | 33.0% | $46 | $2.3K | A | KXGDP-26JUL30-T3.0 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-10-29 | 22.0% | $6 | $1.1K | A | KXGDP-26JUL30-T3.5 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-10-29 | 8.0% | $2 | $308 | A | KXGDP-26JUL30-T4.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Economic Analysis | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Economic Analysis" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Bureau of Economic Analysis source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- Traders pile into US GDP breaking above 2% 76% · Real GDP growth, annualized (FRED) 1.6%
- Kalshi prices a 76% chance real GDP growth exceeds 2% annualized in Q2 2026.
- FRED real GDP growth currently reads 1.6% annualized.
- Market implies a sharp acceleration of at least 0.4 percentage points beyond the current print.
- Resolves against the BEA advance Q2 2026 GDP release, expected late July 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgdp-26jul30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgdp-26jul30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgdp-26jul30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TTR8WH64R6",
"slug": "kxgdp-26jul30",
"question": "Real GDP quarterly growth, Q2 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-gdp",
"economic-growth",
"quarterly-metric",
"2026",
"macroeconomics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 54056,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 97,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}