CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

China Nominal GDP in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 16 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ $19.2 2026-12-31 94.0%
$5
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…9.2
≥ $19.4 2026-12-31 98.0%
$203
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…9.4
≥ $19.6 2026-12-31 98.0%
$105
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…9.6
≥ $19.8 2026-12-31 92.0%
$5
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…9.8
≥ $20 2026-12-31 98.0%
$2.2K
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…0.0
≥ $20.2 2026-12-31 98.0%
$3.2K
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…0.2
≥ $20.4 2026-12-31 95.0%
$227
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…0.4
≥ $20.6 2026-12-31 88.0%
$268
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…0.6
≥ $20.8 2026-12-31 82.0%
$256
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…0.8
≥ $21 2026-12-31 79.0%
$237
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…1.0
≥ $21.2 2026-12-31 66.0%
$178
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…1.2
≥ $21.4 2026-12-31 34.0%
$3
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…1.4
≥ $21.6 2026-12-31 30.0%
$5
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…1.6
≥ $21.8 2026-12-31 23.0%
$1
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…1.8
≥ $22 2026-12-31 17.0%
$1
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…2.0
≥ $22.2 2026-12-31 14.0%
$1
B KXGDPNOM-CHN…2.2
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 16 markets · share this text
If China Nominal GDP is above $19.2 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index"
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgdpnom-chn26/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgdpnom-chn26.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxgdpnom-chn26")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
  "slug": "kxgdpnom-chn26",
  "question": "China Nominal GDP in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "china-gdp",
    "nominal-economics",
    "macroeconomic-indicator",
    "2027-resolution",
    "china-economy"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 16,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 6920,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 64,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →