Will China's nominal GDP in 2026 exceed $20 trillion? [ resolves 2027-04-01 (269D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $19.2 | 2027-04-01 | 94.0% | — | $5 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…9.2 | ||
| ≥ $19.4 | 2027-04-01 | 98.0% | — | $203 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…9.4 | ||
| ≥ $19.6 | 2027-04-01 | 98.0% | — | $105 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…9.6 | ||
| ≥ $19.8 | 2027-04-01 | 92.0% | — | $5 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…9.8 | ||
| ≥ $20 | 2027-04-01 | 98.0% | — | $2.2K | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…0.0 | ||
| ≥ $20.2 | 2027-04-01 | 98.0% | — | $3.2K | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…0.2 | ||
| ≥ $20.4 | 2027-04-01 | 95.0% | — | $227 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…0.4 | ||
| ≥ $20.6 | 2027-04-01 | 88.0% | — | $268 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…0.6 | ||
| ≥ $20.8 | 2027-04-01 | 82.0% | — | $256 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…0.8 | ||
| ≥ $21 | 2027-04-01 | 79.0% | — | $237 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…1.0 | ||
| ≥ $21.2 | 2027-04-01 | 66.0% | — | $178 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…1.2 | ||
| ≥ $21.4 | 2027-04-01 | 34.0% | — | $3 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…1.4 | ||
| ≥ $21.6 | 2027-04-01 | 37.0% | — | $6 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…1.6 | ||
| ≥ $21.8 | 2027-04-01 | 23.0% | — | $1 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…1.8 | ||
| ≥ $22 | 2027-04-01 | 17.0% | — | $1 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…2.0 | ||
| ≥ $22.2 | 2027-04-01 | 10.0% | — | $21 | C | KXGDPNOM-CHN…2.2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If China Nominal GDP is above $19.2 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 China Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index" ↗ sources (2)
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgdpnom-chn26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgdpnom-chn26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgdpnom-chn26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SPVZJ1PGM2",
"slug": "kxgdpnom-chn26",
"question": "Will China's nominal GDP in 2026 exceed $20 trillion?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"china-gdp",
"nominal-economics",
"macroeconomic-indicator",
"2027-resolution",
"china-economy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6941,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 32,
"rcg_caps": [
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}