Will US real GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2%? [ resolves 2027-02-28 (237D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 0.1% | 2027-02-28 | 3.5% | $21 | $1.3K | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-T0.1 | ||
| 0.5% | 2027-02-28 | 3.0% | — | $413 | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-B0.3 | ||
| 1% | 2027-02-28 | 3.9% | $0 | $591 | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-B0.8 | ||
| 1.5% | 2027-02-28 | 13.4% | — | $1.6K | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.3 | ||
| 2% | 2027-02-28 | 26.0% | — | $5.2K | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.8 | ||
| 2.5% | 2027-02-28 | 25.9% | $9 | $4.3K | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.3 | ||
| 3% | 2027-02-28 | 11.7% | $47 | $2.2K | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.8 | ||
| 3.5% | 2027-02-28 | 5.0% | $1 | $1.5K | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.3 | ||
| 4% | 2027-02-28 | 1.9% | — | $298 | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.8 | ||
| 4.5% | 2027-02-28 | 0.5% | — | $117 | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-B4.3 | ||
| 5% | 2027-02-28 | 0.1% | — | $26 | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-B4.8 | ||
| 5.5% | 2027-02-28 | 0.9% | — | $42 | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-B5.3 | ||
| 6% | 2027-02-28 | 1.0% | — | $27 | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-B5.8 | ||
| ≥ 6% | 2027-02-28 | 0.1% | — | $5 | A | KXGDPYEAR-26-T6.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Economic Analysis | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is below 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.
All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Economic Analysis" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Bureau of Economic Analysis source of record venue-listed
- BEA from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgdpyear-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgdpyear-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgdpyear-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-X1SJDG9QQ8",
"slug": "kxgdpyear-26",
"question": "Will US real GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2%?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-gdp-growth",
"macroeconomics",
"annual-economic-performance",
"2026-data",
"quantitative-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17444,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BEA",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}